624
FXUS62 KCAE 071058
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
558 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING,
POTENTIALLY DENSE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD FOG WITH AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.
- CONTINUED COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY TODAY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO
THE REGION SATURDAY HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST WITH GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN AT MID LEVELS. PWATS HAVE
FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH VALUES LESS THAN A HALF
INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION EARLIER RAINFALL AND
CLEARING SKIES AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD FOG WITH MANY LOCATION REPORTING DENSE FOG
AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM.
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PLAINS STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO STRATUS
CLOUDS AND SOME INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S, ALTHOUGH IF MORE SUNSHINE IS OBSERVED TEMPS COULD
BE A TOUCH WARMER.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE LEADING TO CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS AFTER 06Z
SPREADING OVER THE AREA. PWATS STILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH SO
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL
TOTALS LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
- DRIER AND CONTINUED COOL ON TUESDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE FA AT THE START OF THE DAY, WITH A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSING MAINLY TO THE NORTH IN THE EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES
AT DAYBREAK WILL BE IN THE MID-30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA,
FROZEN PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AND THIS SHOULD BE A
RAIN EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE FIRST UPPER DISTURBANCE,
FOLLOWED BY A LOW END (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR A
PASSING SHOWER OR TWO IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AS THE SECOND FEATURE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT WARMING DURING THE DAY
WITH FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-40S TO LOWER 50S. A
DRIER AIR MASS FILTERS IN AT NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
QUICKLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WHERE LOWER 20S ARE FORECAST.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING
THE MORNING HOURS PROMOTING COLD AND DRY WEATHER UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO WARM MUCH COURTESY OF STRONG CAA WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
ANTICYCLONE SINKS SOUTH TOWARDS FLORIDA SO WHILE ANOTHER NIGHT
OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED, VALUES WILL BE WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT FOR MOST WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE FA DRY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE, ALBEIT STILL BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THAT WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD, DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD FOG, DENSE IN MANY LOCATIONS REMAINS IN PLACE
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS AT OGB/AGS/DNL
DUE TO THICKER STRATUS MOVING OVER THOSE LOCATIONS. LIFR CIGS
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z EXCEPT OGB WHERE CIGS MAY BE
IFR/MVFR. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO OCCUR BETWEEN 14Z-16Z
WITH A RETURN TO VFR VSBYS AND THEN MVFR CIGS BY 18Z ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A
PREVAILING EASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 15Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT IFR AND
POSSIBLY LIFR CIG RESTRICTIONS TO RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 02Z-04Z
IN STRATUS BUT VSBYS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT. SOME
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN MAY ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT
IN RESTRICTIONS INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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