445
FXUS62 KCAE 071802
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD WITH LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
- FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH MORE PATCHY THAN LAST NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY, ALTHOUGH PWATS
REMAIN MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GENERALLY AROUND HALF AN
INCH. HIRES FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN PLACE TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING OVER
THE AREA LIMITING SUN, IT WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THE PATTERN WE'VE
BEEN STUCK IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, GENERALLY EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN IS
LESS LIKELY TODAY, HOWEVER, AS RADAR RIGHT NOW INDICATES STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL/GA LINE. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTION OF
THE AREA BUT MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
TONIGHT, UNLIKE LAST NIGHT, MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LIMITED CLEARING
IN CLOUDS. WHILE STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, FOG LIKELY MORE
PATCHY, FAVORING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME CLEARING. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT DENSE FOG DEVELOPS BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THE LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TONIGHT, LEADING TO A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN DEEPER
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
- DRIER AND CONTINUED COOL ON TUESDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALOFT AT NIGHT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS,
WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DO NOT APPEAR TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES,
SO INTENSITY AND OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WHILE
THERE COULD BE A LINGERING RAIN CHANCE INTO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITION SHOULD COME
TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY OR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
APPEAR TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN FOR THIS EVENT, BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE
NON-ZERO FOR A FEW FLAKES UP TOWARD THE CATAWABA REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE PRECIPITATION,
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS FROM
THE BLENDED GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES, WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CSRA.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT,
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
THEN SHIFTS TO THE EAST AT NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY, BUT THE CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS 10-
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DUE TO RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AT NIGHT, RESULTING IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED, SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, A DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE IN.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD
IFR DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ALREADY IN PLACE. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY LIFR DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. FOG
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DENSE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED TO
CLEAR. STILL POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LINGERING RESTRICTIONS INTO
MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page