638
FXUS62 KCAE 081813
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
113 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN IS DEPARTING THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE. CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT,
INTO THE 20S FOR MOST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A COLDER AIR MASS MAY MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AGAIN.
- STRONG COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY AFTERNOON AS
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS LEADING TO SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. CONSENSUS AMONG FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS LOW
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY IN A PERSISTENT
FORECAST. TONIGHT, COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS WITH INCREASING
FLOW OUT OF THE NNE. HIGH PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S WITH NBM PROBS OF LOWS LESS THAN 25 AROUND 50-70%
FOR THE COLUMBIA METRO AND AREAS TO THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY DRY OUT AREA ROADS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE
BUT SOME POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN THE NORTH COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
ICE IN THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED COOL WEATHER TUESDAY, BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
- WARMER BUT BREEZY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK OVERHEAD, BRINGING
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. LINGERING CLOUDS AND CAA BEHIND
MONDAY'S SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA. PWAT'S
DROP TO AROUND 0.25" THROUGH THE DAY AND DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, THOUGH SPOTS INTO THE
MID 20S COULD BE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A SHARP SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD TURN LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND MOISTURE SHOULD TICK UP SOME WITH PWAT'S BETWEEN 0.50-0.75".
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUE TO KEEP FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE FA AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SOME
MORE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEDNESDAY SHOULD
ALSO BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WITH TEMPERATURES THAT REACH AT
LEAST NEAR NORMAL, IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, A 40-50 KT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FA AND WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WHERE CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE (PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS
OVER 25 MPH BETWEEN 50-70%). INCREASED CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS A BIT MORE MILD, IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLE COOL
DOWN OVER WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MORE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN US. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO TREND NEAR TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY BEFORE A DRY FRONT
MAY MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME FRIDAY AND COOLER AIR USHERS IN BEHIND
IT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE EXIST THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY WEEK AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COOL DOWN (BUT
WITH MORE DRY WEATHER) EXISTS WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
BLENDED GUIDANCE IQR RANGES FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WHERE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE IS 10-20F. DUE
TO THIS, LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS HIGH.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SCOURS OUT
SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MEANS
THAT IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ONCE AGAIN WIDESPREAD
CEILING RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR LOW CEILINGS OVER VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH PATCHY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT SOME POINT TOMORROW BUT
UNCERTAINTY IF IT OCCURS BEFORE 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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