391
FXUS62 KCAE 082358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
658 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT, INTO THE 20S FOR MOST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLDER AIR MASS MAY MOVE
IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20'S IN MANY SPOTS.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER AS A DIFFUSE
FRONT MEANDERS THROUGH THE AREA. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OUT OF
THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE PARENT 500MB
TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION, SHIFTING FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
AS THE CORE OF THE VORT MAX WITHIN THAT 500MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN, ALONG WITH SOME
CLEARING ALOFT, AND TEMPS WILL DIVE INTO THE 20'S BY THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TO HELP MITIGATE
ANY FOG CONCERNS. WINDS SHOULD HELP DRY THINGS OUT THIS
EVENING, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS OF BLACK ICE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID-20'S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED COOL WEATHER TUESDAY, BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
- WARMER BUT BREEZY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK OVERHEAD, BRINGING
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. LINGERING CLOUDS AND CAA BEHIND
MONDAY'S SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA. PWAT'S
DROP TO AROUND 0.25" THROUGH THE DAY AND DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, THOUGH SPOTS INTO THE
MID 20S COULD BE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A SHARP SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD TURN LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND MOISTURE SHOULD TICK UP SOME WITH PWAT'S BETWEEN 0.50-0.75".
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUE TO KEEP FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE FA AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SOME
MORE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEDNESDAY SHOULD
ALSO BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WITH TEMPERATURES THAT REACH AT
LEAST NEAR NORMAL, IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, A 40-50 KT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FA AND WITH DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WHERE CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE (PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS
OVER 25 MPH BETWEEN 50-70%). INCREASED CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS A BIT MORE MILD, IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLE COOL
DOWN OVER WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MORE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN US. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO TREND NEAR TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY BEFORE A DRY FRONT
MAY MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME FRIDAY AND COOLER AIR USHERS IN BEHIND
IT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE EXIST THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY WEEK AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COOL DOWN (BUT
WITH MORE DRY WEATHER) EXISTS WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
BLENDED GUIDANCE IQR RANGES FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WHERE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE IS 10-20F. DUE
TO THIS, LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS HIGH.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
SOME SCOURING OUT OF CLOUD COVER OCCURRED ACROSS THE CSRA THIS
EVENING, AND DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS SITES THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, CEILINGS
STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN MVFR AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH 06-07Z,
THEN SHOULD SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS AFTER 07Z THROUGH 18Z. AT THE
CSRA SITES OF AGS/DNL, PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH 04Z, THEN GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 18Z. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH, CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY
BE ABLE TO SCATTER OUT AT ALL SITES AS SOME DRIER AIR MAKES IT
INTO THE REGION. VFR FORECAST FROM 18Z ONWARD AT ALL LOCATIONS.
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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