484
FXUS62 KCAE 092354
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER DAY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLDER AIR
MASS MAY MOVE IN BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND CALM TONIGHT, WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE CLINGS TO THE AREA, AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
PWAT'S REMAIN LOW THANKS TO DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT AND OVERNIGHT,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
AND ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20'S, MAYBE MID 20'S IN SOME LOW LYING
SPOTS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND DID NOT GET
SCOURED OUT THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE BRIEF CLEARING IN
STRATUS. WITH A SOLID INVERSION LIKELY TO SET AND CROSS OVER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20'S, WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE SOME SPOTS OF
FOG (POSSIBLY FREEZING FOG) IN THE MORNING; ANY FREEZING FOG IS
UNLIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM ROAD
TEMPS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BREEZY FOR WEDNESDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES, FOLLOWED BY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS.
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOTABLY STRENGTHEN BY LATE
MORNING AND DRIVE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
ALONG WITH COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT ANY RESIDUAL LOW STRATUS. GUSTS
TO AROUND 35MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS OUT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. WITH PWAT'S DOWN
BELOW 0.75" AND LIMITED FORCING, THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH IN THE EVENING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
THURSDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS RETURNING,
DESPITE SUNNY CLEAR SKIES; 1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL BE AROUND 540-
535DM, SO A MODEST SHOT OF COLD AIR PUSHING IN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG, BUT DRY, FRONT
ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE TROUGH THAT DIGS IN THURSDAY WILL STEADILY FLATTEN OUT AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL STEADILY MODERATE
TO RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE, IN THE 50'S AND LOW 60'S WITH PWAT'S TOO
LOW FOR ANY PRECIP. A STRONG DIGGING TROUGH IS THE NEXT NOTABLE
WEATHER MAKER WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD
HELP POP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD THE SURFACE
FRONT, BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY WITH A STRONG COLD ADVECTION
REGIME BEHIND IT; TEMPS WILL THEN RUN BELOW FOR THE EARLY HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HOWEVER IS IN A STATE, WITH
GREAT DISCREPANCIES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COLD, SHALLOW AIRMASS
CAN MAKE IT. THE NBM 25- 75TH PERCENTILES FOR MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY RANGES FROM 17-34 F AND THEN SIMILARLY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. SO, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ENSEMBLES TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL PROGRESS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL TAKE THE UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS DECOUPLE. EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LATER TONIGHT AND TOWARDS
SUNRISE, UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST. WHILE SOME OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUCH AS MET/MAV ARE SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS, THE NEAR TERM HRRR/RRFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE. WITH
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S, AND FORECAST LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THOSE TO NEAR TERM MODELS,
AND LESS ON BLENDED GUIDANCE DUE TO THIS. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY BR AND FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z,
WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
SUNRISE. HAVE HANDLED THAT WITH TEMPO GROUP AT ALL LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO
LEAN TOWARDS LOW STRATUS/FG. ONE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IF
FOG DOES DEVELOP WOULD BE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH READINGS
AROUND FREEZING, CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
FOG NEAR SUNRISE. FINALLY, WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MIXING TAKES HOLD. STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING IN WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OVER 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL HINDER WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED, BUT LOCALIZED FOG ALONG
RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOME MORNINGS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
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