832
FXUS62 KCAE 101208 RRA
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
708 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A CHILLY START, WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLDER AIR MASS MAY MOVE IN BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- AREAS OF FOG OR FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A DRY FRONT, WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS JUST
SHOWING A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD, BUT SURFACE OBS
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOWER DECKS AND ALSO
LOWERED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
MORE BULLISH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG, AND
POTENTIALLY FREEZING FOG GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOW 30S. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME SLIPPERY CONDITIONS FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE, PARTICULARLY FOR BRIDGES, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH MOST ROAD TEMPERATURES
BEING TOO WARM.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS MORNING,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON AREA
LAKES. AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE START TIME OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WAS MADE TO BETTER LINE UP WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET OF
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AFTER ABOUT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. WINDSPEEDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST JUST AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT, WHICH
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING SHORTLY AFTER
ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD THEN EASE AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST. WITH PWATS
LESS THAN 0.75" JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. WINDSPEEDS HOWEVER DO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL QUITE AS SHARPLY. THIS SURFACE MIXING WILL ALSO NEGATE
ANY REPEAT FOG OR FREEZING FOG THREAT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NOT AS WARM ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE FA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, TRANSITIONING TO BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
WHICH WILL SLOWLY PULL POLEWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD,
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MODEST CAA WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROMOTE
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WARMER DAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID-50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. THERE
MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
ON FRIDAY, LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING, AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO THE NORTH. IDEALIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY
FRIDAY NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MAY BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLDER AIR MASS EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH ITS DURATION OVER
THE FA REMAINS UNCLEAR.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF MINNESOTA AND PASSES TO THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY RIDGING MOVING IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THIS WEEKEND,
KEEPING THE FA DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS A LARGE
TEMPERATURE VARIANCE IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DURING THE EARLY
WEEK PERIOD, BUT IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY QUICK RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY IS
LOW, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING DUE TO
FOG AND/OR STRATUS.
CONFIDENCE HAS WANED REGARDING WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING.
THERE STILL REMAINS A BETTER CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS AT OGB/AGS, BUT
THE THREAT SHOULD END BY 14Z OR 15Z. AT THIS POINT, STRONG UPPER
WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS START OUT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT
AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE MORNING. SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS OF
25 KTS SHOULD THEN KICK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED WLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE
GUSTS START TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND A
FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL HINDER WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED, BUT LOCALIZED FOG ALONG
RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOME MORNINGS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
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