678
FXUS62 KCAE 101802
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY, COLD FRONT.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLDER AIR MASS MAY MOVE IN BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY SW WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AND GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH INTO THE EVENING.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON AREA
LAKES. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM 06Z TO 12Z TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD THEN EASE AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST. WITH GOES
DERIVED PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.5 INCHES TODAY, NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. WINDSPEEDS HOWEVER DO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL QUITE AS SHARPLY. THIS SURFACE MIXING
WILL ALSO NEGATE ANY REPEAT FOG OR FREEZING FOG THREAT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH
MODERATION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BE A PRETTY TRANSIENT TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH, THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THURSDAY, SLOWLY RELAXING AS THE DAY GOES ALONG AND THE SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. LOOKING AT BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS,
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY'LL STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM TANKING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. AS
ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY, THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE TROUGH AND
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS MODERATING QUITE A BIT ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THIS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
- FRIGID AIRMASS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS
EXPECTED.
THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WEATHER-WISE IN THE LONG TERM CENTER AROUND
THE WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS 20F BELOW NORMAL IS STRONG AMONGST GUIDANCE DESPITE THERE
BEING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES REGARDING
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DRIVING THIS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE
AMONGST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE WITH REGARDS
TO THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW AMPLIFIED THE
APPROACHING RIDGE WILL BE. LOOKING AT CLUSTER ANALYSIS WITHIN
THE LREF, THERE APPEAR TO BE TWO CAMPS, WITH THE MAJORITY (~65%
OF MEMBERS) OF GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
TROUGH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE CORE OF THE COLDEST TEMPS
APPROACHING AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON MONDAY BENEATH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A STRONG, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SCENARIO NUMBER 2 (~25% OF MEMBERS)
WOULD RESULT IN THE AIRMASS BEING SLIGHTLY LESS COOL AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PASSING FURTHER TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. REGARDLESS,
THE TEMPS LOOK WELL BELOW NORMAL. ENSEMBLES ACROSS THE BOARD
ARE SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF 2M TEMP ANOMALY <-10F ARE AT 100%,
INDICATIVE OF QUITE THE COLD AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO LOWS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME IN THE UPPER
TEENS ON MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY GET INTO THE
LOW 40S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION BACK TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN THIS COLD AIRMASS, AND PIPES LIKELY WILL NEED TO BE
DRIPPED BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT TO AVOID ANY FROZEN PIPES. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THIS EVENT, TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY'LL BE NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING PRECEDING A FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND WIND SHIFT FROM 06Z TO 12Z TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
SW WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FROM 06Z TO 12Z TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO W OR WNW. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT LOWERING
THE THREAT OF FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. WINDS AROUND 2000 FEET
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 25 KTS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY UP AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT IF THEY
GO CALM LLWS MAY BE REACHED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL HINDER WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED, BUT LOCALIZED FOG ALONG
RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
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