722
FXUS62 KCAE 110003
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
703 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AHEAD OF A DRY, COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLDER AIR
MASS MAY MOVE IN BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT HAVE
SUBSIDED FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. AS IT APPROACHES, WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PICK BACK UP, THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION IN
HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHTER
WINDS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THAT SAID, WILL KEEP THE LAKE
ADVISORY GOING AND IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 1 AM. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
VERY DRY (PWATS ~0.4 INCHES), SO IT'S TOO DRY FOR RAIN AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS SHIFT TO MORE
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN SUBSIDING THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. DUE TO THE WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH
MODERATION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BE A PRETTY TRANSIENT TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH, THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
THURSDAY, SLOWLY RELAXING AS THE DAY GOES ALONG AND THE SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. LOOKING AT BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS,
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY'LL STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM TANKING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. AS
ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY, THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE TROUGH AND
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS MODERATING QUITE A BIT ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THIS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
- FRIGID AIRMASS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS
EXPECTED.
THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WEATHER-WISE IN THE LONG TERM CENTER AROUND
THE WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS 20F BELOW NORMAL IS STRONG AMONGST GUIDANCE DESPITE THERE
BEING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES REGARDING
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DRIVING THIS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE
AMONGST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE WITH REGARDS
TO THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW AMPLIFIED THE
APPROACHING RIDGE WILL BE. LOOKING AT CLUSTER ANALYSIS WITHIN
THE LREF, THERE APPEAR TO BE TWO CAMPS, WITH THE MAJORITY (~65%
OF MEMBERS) OF GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
TROUGH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE CORE OF THE COLDEST TEMPS
APPROACHING AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON MONDAY BENEATH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A STRONG, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SCENARIO NUMBER 2 (~25% OF MEMBERS)
WOULD RESULT IN THE AIRMASS BEING SLIGHTLY LESS COOL AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PASSING FURTHER TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. REGARDLESS,
THE TEMPS LOOK WELL BELOW NORMAL. ENSEMBLES ACROSS THE BOARD
ARE SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF 2M TEMP ANOMALY <-10F ARE AT 100%,
INDICATIVE OF QUITE THE COLD AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO LOWS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME IN THE UPPER
TEENS ON MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY GET INTO THE
LOW 40S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION BACK TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN THIS COLD AIRMASS, AND PIPES LIKELY WILL NEED TO BE
DRIPPED BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT TO AVOID ANY FROZEN PIPES. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THIS EVENT, TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY'LL BE NEAR
NORMAL. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME AFTER SUNSET, WITH GUSTS ALSO
SUBSIDING AT ISSUANCE TIME. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPSTATE OF SC/GA, AND EXPECT THAT WINDS AND GUSTS
WILL AGAIN INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATER ON TONIGHT.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY, MAINLY AFTER 05Z AT MOST SITES. THERE WILL
BE A LOW-LEVEL JET FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT, BUT WITH WINDS AT
THE SURFACE PICKING BACK UP WITH THE FRONT, EXPECT THAT LLWS
WILL BE LIMITED. AS FOR CLOUDS, SATELLITE AND OBS SHOWING SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA, WITH BASES
AROUND 4.5KFT EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD EXPECTED. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS TURN MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY,
GUIDANCE SHOWS THOSE CLOUDS THINNING AND ONLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS REMAINING FROM LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL HINDER WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED, BUT LOCALIZED FOG
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
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