664
FXUS62 KCAE 110703
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
203 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING USHERING
IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK RIDGING SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
WEST OR NORTHWEST AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY, WITH SATELLITE PWAT
ESTIMATES AROUND 0.4", EFFECTIVELY NEGATING ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS, LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT AND FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD PEAK IN THE THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD RELAX THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD RESULTING IN INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES, BUT PWATS ARE MODELED TO
BE AROUND 1 INCH SUGGESTING ANY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES,
WITH SATURDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER. FORECAST HIGHS BOTH DAYS
RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE IDEALIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING (CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS) WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S WHILE INCREASING CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT READINGS IN THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR FILTERING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
- VERY COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
TO MOVE INTO THE FA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY HELPING TO PULL A
CA AIR MASS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANY
CLOUDS AND RAIN DEPARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
CROSSES THE REGION. AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LOWER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE
TEMPERATURE VARIANCE SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT HAS
CONTRACTED SIGNIFICANTLY AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
AIR MASS RECOVERY BEGINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN WEAK UPPER
RIDGING MOVES IN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY LINGERING RAIN
SUNDAY MORNING, THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS LOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE UPSTATE OF SC/GA, AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AT THAT
TIME, EXPECT THAT WINDS AND GUSTS WILL AGAIN INCREASE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.
UNTIL THEN, A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE LLWS POTENTIAL, BUT WITH
WINDS AT THE SURFACE PICKING BACK UP WITH THE FRONT, THAT THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. SURFACE WINDS THEN REMAIN NORTHWEST MUCH OF
TODAY AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND DRY AIR PRECLUDE ANY FOG AND/OR VSBY
REDUCTIONS.
SKC WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 4-6KFT MSL WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ALOFT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, CLOUD COVER SHOULD
THIN WITH ONLY SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINING THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND NO CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL HINDER WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED, BUT LOCALIZED FOG
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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