055
FXUS62 KCAE 111147
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING USHERING
IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK RIDGING SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COLDER
AIRMASS SETTLING IN AS DEWPOINTS FALL. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY VEERED
TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AN AREA OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS
MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, A RESULT OF A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE, BUT WITH PWATS AROUND 0.4" IT IS UNLIKELY WE'LL SEE ANY
PRECIP. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS MIXING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, SO LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT AND FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD PEAK IN THE THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD RELAX THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD RESULTING IN INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES, BUT PWATS ARE MODELED TO
BE AROUND 1 INCH SUGGESTING ANY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES,
WITH SATURDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER. FORECAST HIGHS BOTH DAYS
RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE IDEALIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING (CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS) WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S WHILE INCREASING CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT READINGS IN THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR FILTERING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
- VERY COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
TO MOVE INTO THE FA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY HELPING TO PULL A
CA AIR MASS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANY
CLOUDS AND RAIN DEPARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY
CROSSES THE REGION. AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LOWER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE
TEMPERATURE VARIANCE SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT HAS
CONTRACTED SIGNIFICANTLY AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
AIR MASS RECOVERY BEGINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN WEAK UPPER
RIDGING MOVES IN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY LINGERING RAIN
SUNDAY MORNING, THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS LOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
WLY/NWLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AROUND
15 KTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. GUSTS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND DRY AIR PRECLUDE ANY FOG AND/OR VSBY REDUCTIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 4-6KFT MSL AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS ABOVE THIS
MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ONLY SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND NO
CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SKC RETURNS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY AIR WILL HINDER WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED, BUT LOCALIZED FOG
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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