270
FXUS62 KCAE 111714
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1214 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING USHERING IN
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK
RIDGING SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- REMAINING DRY REST OF THE DAY WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
FREEZING.
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST RIDGES IN. A COUPLE GUSTS
TOWARD 20 MPH WERE SEEN THIS MORNING BUT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO LOOSEN, THESE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TOWARD THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES THEN DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE FORECAST LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT TEMPERATURE WISE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A NICE
LITTLE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE ROBUST MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WELL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S, WITH SOME IN THE MID 50S OR LOW 60S. SATURDAY
LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THE DEEP, UPPER TROUGH FORCING THIS IS
THE PARENT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING OUR ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF A FRONT. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MUCH OF SATURDAY,
THOUGH, WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 40S ON SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR FILTERING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
- VERY COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE KEY MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNCHANGED. AN EARLY
SEASON, ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND
A STOUT COLD FRONT. THE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BRING
NEAR RECORD LOWS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS IS A
REALLY ROBUST, COLD HIGH PRESSURE WITH AN AIRMASS THAT WILL BE
NEAR RECORD COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FAVORS THIS, FROM A FAIRLY ROBUST EARLY SEASON SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A DEEP
TROUGH AND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.
I NOTED THAT THERE WERE TWO SCENARIOS YESTERDAY AMONGST THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS, AND SCENARIO 1 (DEEPER TROUGH, STRONGER
SURFACE HIGH OVERSPREADING THE AREA) SEEMS TO BE WINNING OUT,
WITH ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS 1-3(~86% OF MEMBERS) SHOWING FAIRLY
SIMILAR SCENARIOS. THE RESULT OF THIS IS AN IMPACTFUL PERIOD OF
COLD WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE AREA SOMETIME
SUNDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY SUBDUED WITH RESPECT TO PEAK
WIND GUSTS IN THIS PERIOD, WHICH IS FAIRLY SURPRISING AND
SUSPICIOUS AS PEAK SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON SUNDAY EVENING LOOK
TO BE 1-1.5 MB/HR. SO EXPECT AT LEAST AN HOUR OR SO OF 25-35
MPH WIND GUSTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THESE RELAXING
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
THE COLD ADVECTION LOOKS VERY ROBUST. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO FALL FROM THE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS
BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY
MORNING, CREATING A SCENARIO WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR MONDAY MORNING. LREF
PROBABILITIES OF WIND CHILLS <15F MONDAY MORNING ARE 50-75%
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WHICH IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME
RANGE. HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE 30S ON MONDAY AS
WELL, EXTENDING THE VERY COLD STRETCH EVEN FURTHER. THE SURFACE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS, WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS LIKELY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS, THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
IMPACTFUL DESPITE THERE BEING NO IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION. PIPES
WILL BE PRONE TO FREEZING GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPS
<40F ACROSS THE AREA, SO PLAN TO DRIP YOUR FAUCETS BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO HELP PREVENT THIS. ADDITIONALLY, IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON MONDAY MORNING OR ARE SENDING KIDS TO THE
BUS STOP, BE SURE TO APPLY ADDITIONAL LAYERS TO AVOID ANY COLD
WEATHER RELATED HEALTH ISSUES. PLANNING FOR THIS NOW WILL HELP
YOU AVOID ANY PROBLEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK! AFTER TUESDAY, THE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AS SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 7-12KTS HAVE
OCCASIONALLY BEEN GUSTING TO 15-18KTS, BUT THESE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES. THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, REMAINING LIGHT
AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS OUT OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALSO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG RISKS. 5-10 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN PICK UP
LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY AIR LIKELY WILL PREVENT
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY, BUT LOCALIZED
FOG ALONG RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page