734
FXUS62 KCAE 112314
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING USHERING IN
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK
RIDGING SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND QUIET OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE GULF STATES. SOME
POCKETS OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND AREAS NORTH. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN, TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO NEAR FREEZING ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT, WITH AREAS UNDER THICKER CLOUDS POTENTIALLY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE FORECAST LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT TEMPERATURE WISE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A NICE
LITTLE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE ROBUST MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE WELL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S, WITH SOME IN THE MID 50S OR LOW 60S. SATURDAY
LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THE DEEP, UPPER TROUGH FORCING THIS IS
THE PARENT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING OUR ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF A FRONT. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MUCH OF SATURDAY,
THOUGH, WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 40S ON SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR FILTERING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
- VERY COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL AIR MASS RECOVERY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE KEY MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNCHANGED. AN EARLY
SEASON, ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND
A STOUT COLD FRONT. THE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BRING
NEAR RECORD LOWS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS IS A
REALLY ROBUST, COLD HIGH PRESSURE WITH AN AIRMASS THAT WILL BE
NEAR RECORD COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FAVORS THIS, FROM A FAIRLY ROBUST EARLY SEASON SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A DEEP
TROUGH AND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.
I NOTED THAT THERE WERE TWO SCENARIOS YESTERDAY AMONGST THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS, AND SCENARIO 1 (DEEPER TROUGH, STRONGER
SURFACE HIGH OVERSPREADING THE AREA) SEEMS TO BE WINNING OUT,
WITH ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS 1-3(~86% OF MEMBERS) SHOWING FAIRLY
SIMILAR SCENARIOS. THE RESULT OF THIS IS AN IMPACTFUL PERIOD OF
COLD WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS EAST OF THE AREA SOMETIME
SUNDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY SUBDUED WITH RESPECT TO PEAK
WIND GUSTS IN THIS PERIOD, WHICH IS FAIRLY SURPRISING AND
SUSPICIOUS AS PEAK SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON SUNDAY EVENING LOOK
TO BE 1-1.5 MB/HR. SO EXPECT AT LEAST AN HOUR OR SO OF 25-35
MPH WIND GUSTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THESE RELAXING
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
THE COLD ADVECTION LOOKS VERY ROBUST. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO FALL FROM THE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS
BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY
MORNING, CREATING A SCENARIO WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR MONDAY MORNING. LREF
PROBABILITIES OF WIND CHILLS <15F MONDAY MORNING ARE 50-75%
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WHICH IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME
RANGE. HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE 30S ON MONDAY AS
WELL, EXTENDING THE VERY COLD STRETCH EVEN FURTHER. THE SURFACE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS, WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS LIKELY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS, THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
IMPACTFUL DESPITE THERE BEING NO IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION. PIPES
WILL BE PRONE TO FREEZING GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPS
<40F ACROSS THE AREA, SO PLAN TO DRIP YOUR FAUCETS BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO HELP PREVENT THIS. ADDITIONALLY, IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON MONDAY MORNING OR ARE SENDING KIDS TO THE
BUS STOP, BE SURE TO APPLY ADDITIONAL LAYERS TO AVOID ANY COLD
WEATHER RELATED HEALTH ISSUES. PLANNING FOR THIS NOW WILL HELP
YOU AVOID ANY PROBLEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK! AFTER TUESDAY, THE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THIN CIRRUS
STREAKS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, THE
AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY, AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY CLOUDS
THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, WITH THE DRY AIR, WIDESPREAD
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH BRIEF PATCHY MVFR RIVER FOG COULD
OCCUR NEAR AGS/OGB OVERNIGHT. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART BECOME
RATHER LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT DECOUPLES.
ONCE MIXED RETURNS FRIDAY MID-MORNING, WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY AIR LIKELY WILL PREVENT
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY, BUT LOCALIZED
FOG ALONG RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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