615
FXUS62 KCAE 121759
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY
WITH NEAR TO NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING USHERING IN AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGING SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TONIGHT.
UPPER FLOW HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE ZONAL TODAY AS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIRRUS ARE NOW MOVING OUT OF THE FA, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
RIDGES INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES THAT REACH NEAR NORMAL (MID 50S TO LOW
60S) AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS
CONTINUES TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE SLOWLY RISES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH PWAT'S THAT BEGIN RISING TO NEAR 0.60-0.70".
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO ACT TO LIMIT OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME
TONIGHT TOWARD THE MID 30S, THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE A BIT
COOL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE WHERE THE LOW 30S
IS MORE LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AND LIKELY THE NICEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW COMMON. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SOME UPPER 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT LETS NOT GET OUR HOPES TOO HIGH. CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY ON SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT USHERS IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON.
- AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO
HIGHLIGHT THE DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING, WITH
AN UPGRADE TO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY WITH LATER
FORECAST PACKAGES.
THE KEY MESSAGES REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH THIS PERIOD, AS BITTER COLD
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SETUP, WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE CAROLINAS AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 4P AND 8P ON SUNDAY, WITH
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS OF 30+ MPH FOR
A FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS, WIND CHILLS MAY RANGE FROM 8F-15F ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE
NBM AND LREF SUPPORT THIS STRONGLY. IN AN EFFORT TO BETTER
SERVE THE PUBLIC & PARTNERS, WE HAVE ISSUED A LONG LEAD TIME
EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING TO HELP
ADVERTISE THE COLD MORE EFFECTIVELY. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS VERY
COLD AS WELL, AND WENT WITH COOLER GUIDANCE THAN THE NBM AS
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL, THIS LOOKS LIKE A VERY ROBUST COLD SNAP THAT
COULD BE IMPACTFUL. BE SURE TO DRIP YOUR PIPES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS TO AVOID PIPE FREEZES. AND IF YOU HAVE ANY
ADDITIONAL OUTDOOR INTERESTS, BE SURE TO PROTECT THOSE AS WELL.
BEYOND THIS, TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD
GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCT TO BKN CIRRUS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
MORNING, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS AROUND 5- 9 KTS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM AS SOME MORE
PASSING CIRRUS ARE POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH FOG ARE LOW AT THIS TIME, THOUGH IT CANNOT FULLY
BE RULED OUT AT THE NORMAL PRONE SITES OF AGS/OGB. MUCH OF
MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT FOG
TONIGHT, THOUGH RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE HINTED A COUPLE PATCHES
COULD BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY MORNING SEE'S
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS THAT REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST,
PICKING UP TO AROUND 5 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A
COUPLE SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOK
UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ027>031-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ065-077.
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