655
FXUS62 KCAE 130601
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TODAY WITH NEAR TO
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING USHERING IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGING SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THIS MORNING.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION WHILE
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. THIS IS NOTED IN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEEDEE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. THESE VALUES HIGHLIGHT WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE LOWEST, WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL EVERYWHERE
ELSE WHERE THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AND LIKELY THE NICEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW COMMON. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SOME UPPER 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT LETS NOT GET OUR HOPES TOO HIGH. CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY ON SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT USHERS IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON.
- AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO
HIGHLIGHT THE DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING, WITH
AN UPGRADE TO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY WITH LATER
FORECAST PACKAGES.
THE KEY MESSAGES REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH THIS PERIOD, AS BITTER COLD
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SETUP, WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE CAROLINAS AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 4P AND 8P ON SUNDAY, WITH
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS OF 30+ MPH FOR
A FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY, AND WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS, WIND CHILLS MAY RANGE FROM 8F-15F ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE
NBM AND LREF SUPPORT THIS STRONGLY. IN AN EFFORT TO BETTER
SERVE THE PUBLIC & PARTNERS, WE HAVE ISSUED A LONG LEAD TIME
EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING TO HELP
ADVERTISE THE COLD MORE EFFECTIVELY. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS VERY
COLD AS WELL, AND WENT WITH COOLER GUIDANCE THAN THE NBM AS
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL, THIS LOOKS LIKE A VERY ROBUST COLD SNAP THAT
COULD BE IMPACTFUL. BE SURE TO DRIP YOUR PIPES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS TO AVOID PIPE FREEZES. AND IF YOU HAVE ANY
ADDITIONAL OUTDOOR INTERESTS, BE SURE TO PROTECT THOSE AS WELL.
BEYOND THIS, TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD
GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
A FEW CIRRUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT OTHERWISE NO
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE, THE AIRMASS REMAINS TOO
DRY FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS USUAL THOUGH, WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF PATCHY GROUND FOG AT BOTH AGS/DNL THROUGH
SUNRISE WITH THEIR NEARBY RIVERS. EXPECT CALM WINDS THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A
COUPLE SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS LOOK UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY AS A COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ027>031-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ065-077.
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