285
FXUS62 KCAE 131729
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1229 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
USHERING IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WHOLE AREA
AS A RESULT. WEAK RIDGING SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR AIR MASS
RECOVERY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMER WEATHER TODAY, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THE WEATHER IS QUIET THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF OUR MAJOR COLD SNAP.
SUNNY SKIES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S TODAY, LIKELY GETTING
INTO THE LOW 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TONIGHT AS SOME LOW-END MOISTURE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE PRETTY CERTAIN THAT
WE ARE GOING TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT WITHIN THIS REGIME,
WITH THE HREF SHOWING DECENT PROBS OF >0.01" OF QPF TONIGHT.
REGARDLESS, THE QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT IMPACTFUL. LOWS WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED TONIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND A BITTER COLD AIR
MASS TO THE AREA.
- GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EVENING,
PROMPTING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
- THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE AREA. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
OF 7F-15F ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
THE KEY MESSAGES IN THIS TIME PERIOD REMAIN UNCHANGED AS CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AN IMPACTFUL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING ON SUNDAY
EVENING AND HANGING AROUND THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO
STILL HANG AROUND ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT,
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR BEGINS
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. BY THE EVENING HOURS, A SECONDARY FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH, WITH EVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. 30-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
AS A RESULT, WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED AS A RESULT OF
THIS.
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS BITTERLY COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 15F-20F RANGE AND WINDS 5-10
MPH, RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 8F-15F ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE, IMPACTING THOSE AT BUS STOPS OR OUTDOOR
WORKERS. AS A RESULT, WILL BE HOISTING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO CONTINUE HAMMERING HOME THE MESSAGE OF
BITTERLY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. PLEASE REMEMBER THE
FOUR P'S: PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS! GET THE WORD OUT TO THOSE
WHO ARE VULNERABLE TO THE COLD, AND ENSURE THAT YOUR HOME IS
PROTECTED BY DRIPPING YOUR PIPES AND COVERING OUTDOOR FAUCETS. IT
WOULD BE BEST TO PRACTICE THIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY, AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN AGAIN BY
MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
A GENERAL PATTERN OF WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING THE COLD ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW SHARP
THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE, RESULTING IN SOME
SPREAD ABOUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE PATTERN REMAINING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND TRANSIENT, MEANING THAT OUR HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AS WE GET INTO THE
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 12Z SUNDAY
BRINGING GUSTY, NW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACHING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS, BUT
GENERALLY VFR. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES AT THE AGS, DNL, AND OGB TERMINALS
FROM AROUND 09Z-14Z, SO HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS AT THOSE
LOCATIONS. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 15Z, WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY, GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOK
UNLIKELY AFTER SUNDAY AS A COLD, DRY AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
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