226
FXUS62 KCAE 132344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
USHERS IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WHOLE AREA
AS A RESULT. WEAK RIDGING SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR AIR MASS
RECOVERY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MILD TONIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE
THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE MARCHING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT TO NEAR DAYBREAK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MILD TEMPS
(RELATIVELY SPEAKING) CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND A BITTER COLD AIR
MASS TO THE AREA.
- GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY EVENING,
PROMPTING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
- THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE AREA. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
OF 7F-15F ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
THE KEY MESSAGES IN THIS TIME PERIOD REMAIN UNCHANGED AS CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AN IMPACTFUL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING ON SUNDAY
EVENING AND HANGING AROUND THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO
STILL HANG AROUND ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT,
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR BEGINS
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. BY THE EVENING HOURS, A SECONDARY FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH, WITH EVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. 30-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
AS A RESULT, WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED AS A RESULT OF
THIS.
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS BITTERLY COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 15F-20F RANGE AND WINDS 5-10
MPH, RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 8F-15F ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE, IMPACTING THOSE AT BUS STOPS OR OUTDOOR
WORKERS. AS A RESULT, WILL BE HOISTING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO CONTINUE HAMMERING HOME THE MESSAGE OF
BITTERLY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. PLEASE REMEMBER THE
FOUR P'S: PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS! GET THE WORD OUT TO THOSE
WHO ARE VULNERABLE TO THE COLD, AND ENSURE THAT YOUR HOME IS
PROTECTED BY DRIPPING YOUR PIPES AND COVERING OUTDOOR FAUCETS. IT
WOULD BE BEST TO PRACTICE THIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY, AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S ARE LIKELY TO RETURN AGAIN BY
MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
A GENERAL PATTERN OF WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING THE COLD ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW SHARP
THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE, RESULTING IN SOME
SPREAD ABOUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE PATTERN REMAINING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND TRANSIENT, MEANING THAT OUR HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AS WE GET INTO THE
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND 12Z SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY, NW WINDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT GRADUALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BY 12Z. AS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG THE FRONT, EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN
CIGS TO MVFR ALL TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE IFR AT AGS/DNL.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT AGS/DNL SO WENT PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS, ELSEWHERE
RESTRICTIONS ARE IN A TEMPO GROUP GENERALLY FROM 11Z-15Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS EXPECTED TO SHARPLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY
AFTER SUNDAY AS A COLD, DRY AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
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