590
FXUS62 KCAE 211120
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
620 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY BRINGS IN SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING,
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S, AND THEY'LL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUE. A DRY COLD FRONT,
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WILL PUSH TOWARDS
AND THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTAIN NO
PRECIPITATION AS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH, IN ADDITION TO PWS REMAINING WELL BELOW 1". TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY BE PRETTY PLEASANT AS WE'LL STILL BE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED
FOR MOST. TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY MONDAY; WARMER TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSING TO OUR NORTH BRINGS NORTHEAST
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WE START CHRISTMAS
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR, OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED DRY WITH A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND.
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND. AS WE GET
TO CHRISTMAS DAY, WE HAVE A VERY HIGH CHANCE (70%-90%, DEPENDING
ON LOCATION) OF REACHING AT LEAST 70 DEGREES. AFTER CHRISTMAS,
GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA, LIKELY BRINGING COOLER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION.
AS OF NOW, THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER DRY FRONT, BUT THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR AS DRY AIR IS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLAIN, THERE IS SOME FOG OR LOW
CLOUDINESS BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COASTLINE. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR AND BENIGN AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BECOME EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND 1500 FEET. GUIDANCE IS
BORDERLINE IN TERMS OF HOW STRONG IT WILL BE, WITH LLWS A
POSSIBILITY TONIGHT IF GUIDANCE COMES IN A BIT STRONGER LATER
ON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REST WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SOMEWHAT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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