074
FXUS62 KCAE 212319
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD FRONT USHERS IN A BIT COOLER AIR MASS MONDAY BEFORE A
STEADY WARMING TREND IS SEEN THROUGH FRIDAY, LIKELY WITH
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT AND A BIT BREEZY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 6PM SHOW THAT THE FRONT REMAINS JUST
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS AT 925MB
INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS
INTO TONIGHT. HIRES FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 30 KNOTS, STRONGEST IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTER. BREEZY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DRIVEN BY COLD ADVECTION. SEASONALLY COLD
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. MOST EFFICIENT MIXING
WILL BE OVER AREA LAKES WHERE WATER SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE 50S. WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
BORDERLINE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER AND DRIER ON MONDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CREATE WEDGE-
LIKE CONDITIONS OVER THE FA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL HELP OFFSET THE COOLER AIR MASS AS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES END UP AROUND SEASONAL VALUES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD RESULT IN NOTICEABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. PWATS WILL ALSO RECOVER SOMEWHAT,
LIKELY LEADING TO MORE CLOUDINESS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
- ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD PUTS AN END TO
THE WARMING TREND.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
LONG TERM BEFORE FLATTENING OUT DUE TO A PASSING TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODS WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND, THE CHANCE
OF RAIN REMAINS LOW, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT, THROUGH SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD HALT THE WARMING TREND AS
ANOTHER COOL, DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THIS AIR MASS IS OF POLAR
ORIGIN, SO LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH, WINDS WILL START OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON MONDAY.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER, MAKING FOR A BORDERLINE LLWS
SITUATION FROM ABOUT 8-13Z. I THINK THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH NEAR
SURFACE WINDS TO KEEP US BELOW THE NECESSARY CRITERIA TO ADD TO THE
TAFS, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
THE MID CLOUDS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATE TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO
CIGS OR VSBYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE MID WEEK WHERE MORNING FOG OR
STRATUS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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