916
FXUS62 KCAE 220558
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1258 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COOLER AIR MASS IN STORE FOR TODAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING BRINGS A
STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUING FOR THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES STILL EXPECTED.
SOME PESKY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO HANG AROUND THE
CSRA, WHICH IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP WELL IN THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE POORLY MODELED BY GUIDANCE AND
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER THE COMING HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS
KIND OF SETUP TENDS TO YIELD THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND
LONGER THAN FORECAST. SO TEMPS MAY END UP BUSTING HIGH DOWN
THERE, WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP SOMEWHERE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOWS. AS WE GET INTO THE DAY TODAY,
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CAROLINAS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST TO BE COMMON AND LIKELY A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES GIVEN
WE HAVE A 20-30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD CURRENTLY. THIS
SHOULD MIX DOWN AND YIELD SOME OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF
15-20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY AROUND 9A-11A. THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY
DRY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE AIRMASS BEING COLD, THIS SHOULD HELP TO YIELD
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE NBM HAS IN THERE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS UNANIMOUSLY WARMER THAN THE NBM.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHIFTING
EASTWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND COASTAL
PLAIN. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING IN
EARNEST ON TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE AREA DURING
THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FURTHER OFF SHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS, WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE
TWO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
- A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT POSSIBLE AFTER CHRISTMAS. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED THIS FRONT NORTHWARD. THEREFORE, CURRENT FORECAST IS
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BRING
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS ATOP THE AUGUSTA SITES, WITH THESE CEILINGS AT
VFR CURRENTLY. GENERALLY EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO HANG AROUND
FOR A FEW HOURS OR LONGER BUT NOT BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH A DECENT LOW-LEVEL JET OF 25 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET
HELPING TO KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 5-10 KNOTS AT AREA SITES. THIS,
ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS, WILL HELP KEEP LOW CLOUDS OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS WE GET INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO EMERGE AT
SOME POINT DURING THE DAY. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS BRIEFLY RISE UP
TO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AS LOW-LEVEL MIXING COMMENCES AND HELPS
TO MIX DOWN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THESE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY ABATE
AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD,
THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AT LEAST ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS IN THE CSRA AND COASTAL PLAIN.
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE MVFR OR ANYTHING AT THIS POINT BUT IT
COULD BUILD DOWN AS WE GET JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE MID WEEK WHERE MORNING FOG OR
STRATUS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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