016
FXUS62 KCAE 221456
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
956 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COOLER AIR MASS IN STORE FOR TODAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING BRINGS A
STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUING FOR THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES STILL EXPECTED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE NOW MOVED INTO THE AREA AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE OCCASIONALLY GUSTED UP TO AROUND 15
MPH AS THE INVERSION BEGINS BREAKING, BUT THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE
IN THE COMING HOURS AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
EXTREMELY DRY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TEENS, LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AIRMASS BEING COLD,
THIS SHOULD HELP TO YIELD HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE NBM HAS
IN THERE AND TRENDED TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS UNANIMOUSLY
WARMER THAN THE NBM. TONIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
AND RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA
AND COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S
AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING IN
EARNEST ON TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE AREA DURING
THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FURTHER OFF SHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS, WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE
TWO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
- A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT POSSIBLE AFTER CHRISTMAS. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED THIS FRONT NORTHWARD. THEREFORE, CURRENT FORECAST IS
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BRING
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE NOW EMERGING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO 5-8 KTS
WITH A COUPLE GUSTS TOWARD 10-15 KTS NOTED AS THE INVERSION HAS
BEGUN TO BREAK. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT, LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKING MORE OF
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT SHOULD ADVECT GREATER MOISTURE IN THE
AREA, POSSIBLY BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS NEAR DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
IN THE REGION INTO THE MID WEEK WHERE MORNING FOG OR STRATUS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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