133
FXUS62 KCAE 230014
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
714 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING BRINGS A STEADY WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY, POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CLOUD COVER INCREASES TONIGHT, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO TONIGHT. ALOFT, BROAD
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY.
TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND PWAT'S RAISE
TO NEAR 1". IN GENERAL, THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THAT WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARD THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. FAIRLY ROBUST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER IS
SHOWN IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY SATURATED COLUMN UP TO AROUND 8K FEET SO I WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A COUPLE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OCCUR TOWARD EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING IN
EARNEST ON TUESDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING IN
EARNEST ON TUESDAY.
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DURING
THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST HELPING TO KICK OFF A QUICK WARMING TREND. THERE MAY
BE SOME ELEVATED AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. AN
ADDITIONAL 5-8 DEGREES OF WARMING IS THEN ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
BROADER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME
DAMPENING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH NBM
PROBABILITIES >90% FOR MOST OF THE AREA SEEING CHRISTMAS DAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 70 DEGREES F. A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE,
BUT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VALUES TO REBOUND THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD AND HEIGHTS INCREASE AGAIN. A MORE
POTENT FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT APPROACHING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELS ALL DEPICT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE KEEPS CEILINGS
LOW-END VFR AT KCAE/KCUB/KOGB, BUT SUGGESTS SOME MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KAGS/KDNL FROM ABOUT 12Z-16Z. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THEN INCREASING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15-18 KT POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER IN THE REGION INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK WHERE MORNING FOG
OR STRATUS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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