578
FXUS62 KCAE 231128
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING BRINGS A STEADY WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY, POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TO TAKE
HOLD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, A WEAK FRONT
WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN CWA, BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HOURS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PWATS,
WITH VALUES GENERALLY GETTING TO AROUND AN INCH. THE ONLY
IMPACTS TO THE AREA WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY
WILL BE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT
THERE WILL BE ANY KIND OF RAIN ACTIVITY. SOME SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME DRYING THEN OVERNIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEINGS WORKING
IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
BECOMING A LITTLE BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO START
SOME WARM ADVECTION, AND THUS A WARMING TREND WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SEEING READINGS IN THE 60S. MILDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NOTABLE WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO
THE 70'S.
BROAD DEEP RIDGING WILL STEADILY BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY WITH OUR AREA SETTLING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PRIMARY RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY PATTERN WITH GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND PWAT'S GENERALLY FALLING
TO 0.75-0.9"; SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME STRATO-CU. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMBING ABOVE 580DM, IT
WILL DEFINITELY BE QUITE WARM THROUGHOUT THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALIES,
SURFACE TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 70'S ACROSS THE AREA;
LIKELY NOT QUITE RECORD HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE, BUT TOP 10
WARMEST LOOKS VERY PLAUSIBLE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING PATTERN CONTINUES FOR CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEP RIDGING DOMINATES TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH WITH 95TH OR HIGHER PERCENTILE SURFACE TEMPS
AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN IT DOESN'T QUITE LOOK LIKE WE
WILL REACH RECORD HIGH TEMPS (CANNOT RULE IT OUT HOWEVER), FALLING A
FEW DEGREES SHORT EACH DAY. BUT WE WILL HAVE MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW
THAT WILL BE DAILY TOP 10 WARMEST, SO AN IMPRESSIVE AND PERSISTENT
PATTERN NONETHELESS. FINALLY A STRONG ENOUGH TROUGH AND FRONT WILL
DIG THOUGH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY,
BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE.
OBS STILL SHOWING CEILINGS VFR AROUND 4.5 KFT, AND MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SCATTER OUT AT ALL
LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR WINDS,
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT, THEN TURNING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS.
MAY SEE SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS TAKE HOLD BY LATE MORNING, WITH
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER IN THE REGION INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK WHERE MORNING FOG
OR STRATUS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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