339
FXUS62 KCAE 231748
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1248 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER RIDGING BRINGS A STEADY WARMING TREND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
RAISING ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION HAS SET UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FA. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO SCATTER OUT SOME AND THUS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAISE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S OVER THE COMING HOURS. AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BECOME A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH POSSIBLE BEFORE THESE DECAY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL BEGIN
TO SLIDE EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS
START TO RISE, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH AS SURFACE DEW POINTS STICK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, THIS UPTICK IN MOISTURE SHOULD BRING
A MILD OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE TOWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND WEAK SURFACE WINDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY.
BROAD RIDGING WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH THE FORECAST AREA SQUARELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER,
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME PASSING CLOUDS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AIDING IN
PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. DEC 24-25
NORMALS ARE 57 DEGREES FOR HIGHS, AND NBM INTERQUARTILE HIGH TEMP
SPREADS ARE 73-76 AND 75-77 DEGREES EACH DAY AT CAE. RECORDS AT CAE
ARE 77 AND 79 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESPECTIVELY, SO THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE TO TIE OR BREAK THESE RECORDS. HOWEVER, A MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT OF THESE
VALUES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING SHARPLY TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF US, GENERATING A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN GENERAL, EXPECT SOME PASSING
CLOUDS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
(PWAT AT OR BELOW 1"). LESSER CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE
GLEANED BY THE NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE OF 68-75 DEGREES, WITH
GREATER SPREADS NORTH AND EAST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR. AS SUCH,
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE PEE DEE TO THE
MID 70S IN THE CSRA.
OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE MID 70S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD. FINALLY, AN UPPER TROUGH
DISRUPTS THE PATTERN BY DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS AFTER A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TO BE
ROUGHLY 20 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY AS A RESULT, THOUGH
THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL VALUES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
ADDITIONALLY, WE'LL SEE THE RETURN OF SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO TAF SITES IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME STATO-CUMULUS REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS CAN BE SEEN SCATTERING OUT
TOWARD THE UPSTATE. A SCT DECK AROUND 6,000 TO 8,500 FT SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 7-10 KTS WHERE A COUPLE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE GUSTS WIND DOWN TONIGHT WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THUS PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA SEEM
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS AT THE TAF SITES IS LOW
AT THIS TIME AND THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN THE TAF.
WINDS WEDNESDAY START OUT OF THE WEST BEFORE BECOMING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA, BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE TO THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COUPLE MORNINGS WITH PATCHY FOG
OR STRATUS SEEMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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