073
FXUS62 KCAE 232333
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER RIDGING BRINGS A STEADY WARMING TREND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MILDER LOWS TONIGHT, LOW RISK FOR PATCHY FOG.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
AS VAD WIND PROFILER STILL SHOWS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT MILDER TEMPS TONIGHT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS MAY LEAD
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WITH LOWS TONIGHT NEARING CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. FOG LIKELY WILL
NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD, HOWEVER, AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED.
ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME DENSE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY.
BROAD RIDGING WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH THE FORECAST AREA SQUARELY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER,
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME PASSING CLOUDS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AIDING IN
PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. DEC 24-25
NORMALS ARE 57 DEGREES FOR HIGHS, AND NBM INTERQUARTILE HIGH TEMP
SPREADS ARE 73-76 AND 75-77 DEGREES EACH DAY AT CAE. RECORDS AT CAE
ARE 77 AND 79 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESPECTIVELY, SO THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE TO TIE OR BREAK THESE RECORDS. HOWEVER, A MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT OF THESE
VALUES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING SHARPLY TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF US, GENERATING A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN GENERAL, EXPECT SOME PASSING
CLOUDS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
(PWAT AT OR BELOW 1"). LESSER CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE
GLEANED BY THE NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE OF 68-75 DEGREES, WITH
GREATER SPREADS NORTH AND EAST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR. AS SUCH,
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE PEE DEE TO THE
MID 70S IN THE CSRA.
OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE MID 70S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD. FINALLY, AN UPPER TROUGH
DISRUPTS THE PATTERN BY DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS AFTER A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TO BE
ROUGHLY 20 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY AS A RESULT, THOUGH
THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL VALUES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
ADDITIONALLY, WE'LL SEE THE RETURN OF SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY, BUT
PATCHY FOG COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN COUPLED AROUND 5 KT OUT OF THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
JET, BUT AS THE JET DIMINISHES, EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT, AND A FEW CLOUDS IN THE 3500-5000 FT
LAYER ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE 10-14Z TIME
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH, BUT WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT ALL TERMINALS FOR BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS
PERSISTING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COUPLE MORNINGS WITH PATCHY FOG
OR STRATUS SEEMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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