147
FXUS62 KCAE 240554
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1254 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER RIDGING BRINGS A STEADY WARMING
TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, AND LIKELY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS CHRISTMAS EVE.
EARLY THIS MORNING: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS INCREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND THUS CAN NOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES. DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE DUE TO A LOW-LEVEL JET THAT HAS SET UP JUST ABOVE
THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA HELPING TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME WEAK
MIXING GOING ON THROUGH THE NIGHT. MORNING LOWS REMAINING MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S STILL ON TRACK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH SURFACE
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING, WILL
BRING SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND ASSOCIATED DIABATIC WARMING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE 70S OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MIDLANDS, WITH UPPER
70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CSRA. THESE WILL BE NEAR OUR DAILY RECORD
HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. DON'T WORRY THOUGH KIDDOS, EVEN
WITH THIS WARMTH AND LACK OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE'D BE
WILLING TO BET THAT SANTA CLAUSE WILL STILL FIND A WAY TO YOUR
HOMES THIS CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
BROAD DEEP RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL US,
RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS-
THICKNESSES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL YIELD SURFACE
TEMPS THAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 70'S ACROSS THE AREA
CHRISTMAS DAY; GUIDANCE REMAINS EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMP
FORECAST, AS ONLY TWO DEGREES SEPARATES THE 10-90TH PERCENTILES IN
THE NBM. THIS WILL YIELD, AT LEAST, A TOP 5 WARMEST CHRISTMAS DAY
FOR BOTH COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA; SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE DAILY RECORDS. BASED ON THE FORECAST ENSEMBLE
DISTRIBUTIONS, CAE HAS A ROUGHLY 15% CHANCE TO SET THE RECORD FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. AGS IS A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE BUT BOTH CAE AND
AGS HAVE A 95% CHANCE TO BE A TOP 5 WARMEST CHRISTMAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BRIEF COOLDOWN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY, BEFORE A RETURN TO
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY TO USHER IN A WELL BELOW AVERAGE
AIRMASS.
AS GUIDANCE HAS STEADILY RESOLVED THE STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH BETTER,
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED A BIT FOR FRIDAY OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES.
A VERY FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE STRONG PACIFIC JET
AND THEN QUICKLY ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL US, WITH A
BROAD WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP ACROSS NC, STRETCHING
DOWN INTO NORTHERN SC. WHILE RAIN LOOKS UNLIKELY, THIS CLOUD COVER
AND WEAK TROUGH WILL SET UP A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60'S,
WHILE TEMPS IN AUGUSTA CLIMB INTO THE MID 70'S. THIS SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND TEMPS QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK UP SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY HAS RIDGING FILLS, WITH A RETURN TO TEMPS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. AS THE RESIDUAL PACIFIC TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD, A
STRONG LOW AND SURFACE FRONT WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US AND BRING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND PATTERN ALOFT IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY,
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 5 KNOTS AT BEST FOR
MOST AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
INVERSION. HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AT AGS/OGB. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT PUTTING IN THOSE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THROUGH THE DAY, THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DOWNSLOPING TO THE REGION, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
06Z ON THE 25TH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COUPLE MORNINGS WITH PATCHY FOG
OR STRATUS SEEMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CAE AND AGS:
CHRISTMAS EVE RECORDS:
- COLUMBIA: 77 F (2015)
- AGS: 80 F (1950)
CHRISTMAS DAY RECORDS:
- COLUMBIA: 79 F (1955)
- AGS: 80 F (1950)
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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