966
FXUS62 KCAE 241711
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1211 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF
COOLDOWN. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR,
THOUGH THE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEFORE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
ENTERS NORTHERN FA TONIGHT.
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IS SETTING UP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH
DOWNSLOPING BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. IN THE COMING HOURS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S, LIKELY
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CHRISTMAS EVE RECORD VALUES AT CAE
(77F) AND AGS (80F). HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, A
WEAK AND SLOW MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD CREEP INTO THE NORTHERN FA BEFORE
LIKELY STALLING AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A PSEUDO-
WARM FRONT CHRISTMAS MORNING. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD YIELD SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE PEE DEE REGION. WITH DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, PATCHES OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING AS WELL. OVERALL, A MILD BUT DRY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED FOR SANTA CLAUSE AND HIS REINDEER AS THEY MAKE THEIR
WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND SATURDAY.
- CLOUDS FROM A PASSING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PEE DEE.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE CSRA.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT
TERM. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY, BARRING A LOW RISK OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE CSRA FRIDAY NIGHT. A PASSING STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO THE FA, LIKELY REDUCING TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES. THERE REMAINS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A TOP 5
WARMEST CHRISTMAS DAY FOR BOTH COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE SPECIFICS ON THE
DAILY RECORDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT.
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A POTENT TROUGH THAT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
WHILE PWATS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW,
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. MORE IMPORTANTLY, A MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
SWING TO BELOW SEASONAL VALUES TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR.
AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG THURSDAY MORNING.
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REACHES
THE PEE DEE REGION TONIGHT AND BKN TO OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
LIKELY MOVE IN WITH IT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE AN INDICATION IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IN PATCHES OF SCT LOW CLOUDS AROUND 3,500 TO 5,000 FT
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THIS TIME. WHILE PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EARLY THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. CLOUD COVER LIKELY SCATTERS OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WHERE A COUPLE GUSTS TOWARD 15-20 KTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING CEILING RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY
BEFORE MORNING FOG OR STRATUS COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CAE AND AGS:
CHRISTMAS EVE RECORDS:
- COLUMBIA: 77 F (2015)
- AUGUSTA : 80 F (1964)
CHRISTMAS DAY RECORDS:
- COLUMBIA: 79 F (1955)
- AUGUSTA : 81 F (2015)
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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