562
FXUS62 KCAE 250546
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1246 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF
COOLDOWN. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR,
THOUGH THE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, WITH SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN,
WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE TO BRING ANOTHER WARM
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FEEL
MUCH MORE LIKE SPRING, WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THESE SHOULD TOP OUT JUST BELOW OUR RECORD HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT,
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA DRY, SO NO RAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING MILD ONCE AGAIN, WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND.
A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE STRONG
PACIFIC TROUGH, ROUND THE BROAD RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL US, AND THEN
DIVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A WEAK, QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL
REFLECT AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME SUBTLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DOWNSTREAM. AS A RESULT, SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS
WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO NC, MAYBE INTO NORTHERN SC; PWAT'S ARE ONLY
AROUND 1.0", SO ANY RAIN WILL LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS
WILL SET UP A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH TEMPS ACROSS NC TOPPING OUT IN THE 40'S
BUT DOWN INTO THE CSRA, TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB AGAIN INTO MID-70'S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DEEP RIDGING AND VERY WARM TEMPS WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY FRONT MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS TUESDAY ONWARD.
BEHIND THE QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE FROM FRIDAY, DEEP RIDGING AND
GENERALLY DRY AIR WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 70'S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, NEAR RECORD HIGHS). EVENTUALLY THE DEEP AND PERSISTENT
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD, DRIVING A STRONG SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN US. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN A
LITTLE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH EJECTION, AS IS
PRETTY TYPICAL, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW SWINGING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
FRONT LOOKS ANOMALOUS IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION, WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NAEFS AND EC EFI HIGHLIGHT
THIS WHOLE PERIOD WELL WITH A PROMINENT SWING FROM NEAR RECORD
HIGHS TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SATELLITE SHOWING SCATTERED CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION,
WHILE IN LOWER LEVELS, SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP CLOUD CEILINGS VFR
THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH BASES AROUND 4.5KFT BEING INDICATED.
HAVE GENERALLY KEPT WITH THAT TREND AT ALL SITES. IN ADDITION,
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS
SUNRISE, AND HAVE A TEMPO GROUP MENTIONING MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR
BRIEF PERIODS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATCHY GROUND FOG. AFTER
SUNRISE, CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10 KTS, WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
BY SUNSET, REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 5
KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PASSING
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING CEILING RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY, BEFORE MORNING
FOG OR STRATUS COULD OCCUR INTO THIS WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CAE AND AGS:
CHRISTMAS DAY RECORDS:
- COLUMBIA: 79 F (1955)
- AUGUSTA : 81 F (2015)
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page