554
FXUS62 KCAE 251142
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF
COOLDOWN. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR,
THOUGH THE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL AGAIN, WITH WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN IN PLACE. CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE TO BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FEEL MUCH MORE
LIKE SPRING, WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THESE SHOULD
TOP OUT JUST BELOW OUR RECORD HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT, A WEAK
FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD DRY, SO NO RAIN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING MILD ONCE
AGAIN, WITH VALUES BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND.
A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE STRONG
PACIFIC TROUGH, ROUND THE BROAD RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL US, AND THEN
DIVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A WEAK, QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL
REFLECT AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME SUBTLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
DOWNSTREAM. AS A RESULT, SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS
WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO NC, MAYBE INTO NORTHERN SC; PWAT'S ARE ONLY
AROUND 1.0", SO ANY RAIN WILL LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS
WILL SET UP A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH TEMPS ACROSS NC TOPPING OUT IN THE 40'S
BUT DOWN INTO THE CSRA, TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB AGAIN INTO MID-70'S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DEEP RIDGING AND VERY WARM TEMPS WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY FRONT MONDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS TUESDAY ONWARD.
BEHIND THE QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE FROM FRIDAY, DEEP RIDGING AND
GENERALLY DRY AIR WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 70'S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, NEAR RECORD HIGHS). EVENTUALLY THE DEEP AND PERSISTENT
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD, DRIVING A STRONG SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN US. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN A
LITTLE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH EJECTION, AS IS
PRETTY TYPICAL, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW SWINGING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
FRONT LOOKS ANOMALOUS IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION, WITH TEMPS
RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NAEFS AND EC EFI HIGHLIGHT
THIS WHOLE PERIOD WELL WITH A PROMINENT SWING FROM NEAR RECORD
HIGHS TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
SATELLITE SHOWING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND CSRA OF GA EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP CLOUD CEILINGS VFR THROUGH
THIS MORNING, WITH BASES AROUND 6KFT BEING INDICATED. HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT WITH THAT TREND AT ALL SITES. AFTER SUNRISE,
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10 KTS,
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE BY SUNSET, REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS 08Z, GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PASSING
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING CEILING RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY, BEFORE MORNING
FOG OR STRATUS COULD OCCUR INTO THIS WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CAE AND AGS:
CHRISTMAS DAY RECORDS:
- COLUMBIA: 79 F (1955)
- AUGUSTA : 81 F (2015)
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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