550
FXUS62 KCAE 251728
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1228 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGS MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR,
THOUGH THE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS
RELATIVELY LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.
- INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR FRONT NEARS.
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE COMING HOURS TOWARD THE
UPPER 70S BUT A COUPLE SPOTS REACHING 80F WILL BE POSSIBLE. NEAR
RECORD VALUES WILL BE LIKELY AT CAE (79F FROM 1955) AND AGS
(81F FROM 2015) THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
NEARS THE NORTHERN FA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE, BUT IN
GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE IT'LL REACH THE PEE DEE REGION NEAR THE
END OF THIS PERIOD WITH PWAT'S RIGHT AROUND 1". OVERALL, ONLY
SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT A COUPLE
SPRINKLES TOWARD DAYBREAK WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. LOWS TONIGHT
REMAIN MILD, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
- TEMPERATURES GO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN.
A SHORTWAVE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US. AS RESULT, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF SPREAD
IN TEMPERATURES AMONG THE GEFS AND ENS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR, LEADING TO A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT. SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS
MUCH LOWER IN THE CSRA, INDICATING HIGHER CONFIDENCE, WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF
THERE, WITH 50S POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER, LEADING
TO A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRAY SHOWER COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WITH THE AIR BEING
DRY, PROBABILITIES ARE LOW (<10%). THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST FOR SATURDAY, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO FILL BACK IN AND AID IN
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT, MUCH
WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RELATIVELY WARM TO START THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE, SENDING ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, TEMPS DEPEND A LOT ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT CAN MAKE IT, SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THIS.
MONDAY IS TRENDING WARMER AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, MUCH COLDER (10-15F BELOW AVERAGE) TEMPS MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. IN ADDTION TO THE COLDER WEATHER,
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY'S FRIDAY MORNING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KTS. A COUPLE
GUSTS TOWARD 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NEARS THE PEE
DEE REGION, MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, THOUGH CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN VFR.
TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASES AND
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS INDICATING PATCHY FOG AFTER 07-09Z WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS SOME POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPING
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS THIS WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT PUSHES AND RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS IS LOW
AS THE FRONT LIKELY REMAINS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS
THEN GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BRING
MORNING FOG OR STRATUS COULD OCCUR INTO THIS WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CAE AND AGS:
CHRISTMAS DAY RECORDS:
- COLUMBIA: 79 F (1955)
- AUGUSTA : 81 F (2015)
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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