327
FXUS62 KCAE 260600
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
100 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR, THOUGH THE CHANCE OF
RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS RELATIVELY LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
EARLY THIS MORNING: A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA, AND MAY BEGIN TO ENTER THESE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT, SO A DRY FORECAST ON TAP THROUGH
SUNRISE. EVEN SO, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH AS
THE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TO BRING A FEW LOW AND MID CLOUDS TO
THE REGION. WITH LIGHT WINDS, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PEE DEE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN STALL AND
EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL CREATE A WIDE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
WITH MUCH COOLER READINGS AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH, WHILE THE CSRA
WILL REACH IN TO THE MIDDLE 70S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
FRONT REMAINING DRY AS IT MOVES IN, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS THE PEE DEE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR RECORD TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT SUNDAY WILL DROP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
DEEP RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
FOLLOWING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY. WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES CLIMBING OVER 564DM, NO SURPRISE THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL
AGAIN CLIMB BACK TOWARDS RECORD HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NBM
MEMBER SUITE IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70'S. OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS, THIS AIRMASS HAS RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
REALITY THAN THE BIAS-CORRECTED NBM. SO SOME SPOTS IN THE LOW 80'S
IS LIKELY WITH DAILY RECORDS AT CAE AND AGS POSSIBLE. FOR SUNDAY, IT
LOOKS LIKE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF FRIDAY, WITH A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AND DRIVING A WEAK SURFACE
LOW DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO NC AND POSSIBLY SETUP A NOTABLE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS
NORTHERN SC; HIGH TEMPS IN THE CSRA SHOULD STILL PUSH INTO THE MID-
70'S, WHILE THE PEE DEE MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50'S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARD.
THE EJECTING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
MONDAY, THEN DIG SOUTHEAST, AND DRIVE A VERY STRONG LOW AND SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN US. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE
WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR AREA, IT WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME
MONDAY AND BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH;
PWAT'S AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE SO PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY UNDERWHELMING DESPITE
THE IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
GUSTY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES AND MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH LIKELY AND IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION OF 3-5 C/HR.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, AN ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER TEMPS IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS 10-15 F BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY-FRIDAY
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS; NOTABLE CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL WINDS MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOW WILL NOT BE AS ANOMALOUS COLD (5-10 F BELOW
AVERAGE).
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH COMBINATION OF VFR
AND MVFR POSSIBLE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING BEFORE
STALLING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT THEN MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN
WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT
IS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. CSRA WILL SEE WINDS REMAINING MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING SOME CEILING RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MVFR BASES EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY FOG CAN ALSO NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE SEEMS
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WE SHIFT BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
RETREATING FRONT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THIS TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BRING MORNING FOG OR STRATUS THIS
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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