089
FXUS62 KCAE 261131
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR, THOUGH THE CHANCE OF
RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS RELATIVELY LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PATCHY MORNING FOG.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
THIS MORNING: A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TOWARDS SUNRISE. THERE WILL BE
A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT,
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING.
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO TONIGHT: THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH CONTINUE TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL THEN STALL AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE A WIDE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH MUCH COOLER READINGS AROUND 60 IN THE
NORTH, WHILE THE CSRA WILL REACH IN TO THE MIDDLE 70S. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT REMAINING DRY AS IT MOVES IN, BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS THE PEE DEE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR RECORD TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT SUNDAY WILL DROP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
DEEP RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
FOLLOWING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY. WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES CLIMBING OVER 564DM, NO SURPRISE THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL
AGAIN CLIMB BACK TOWARDS RECORD HIGHS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NBM
MEMBER SUITE IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70'S. OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS, THIS AIRMASS HAS RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
REALITY THAN THE BIAS-CORRECTED NBM. SO SOME SPOTS IN THE LOW 80'S
IS LIKELY WITH DAILY RECORDS AT CAE AND AGS POSSIBLE. FOR SUNDAY, IT
LOOKS LIKE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF FRIDAY, WITH A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AND DRIVING A WEAK SURFACE
LOW DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO NC AND POSSIBLY SETUP A NOTABLE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS
NORTHERN SC; HIGH TEMPS IN THE CSRA SHOULD STILL PUSH INTO THE MID-
70'S, WHILE THE PEE DEE MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50'S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARD.
THE EJECTING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
MONDAY, THEN DIG SOUTHEAST, AND DRIVE A VERY STRONG LOW AND SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN US. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE
WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR AREA, IT WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME
MONDAY AND BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH;
PWAT'S AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE SO PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY UNDERWHELMING DESPITE
THE IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
GUSTY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES AND MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH LIKELY AND IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION OF 3-5 C/HR.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, AN ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER TEMPS IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS 10-15 F BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY-FRIDAY
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS; NOTABLE CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL WINDS MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOW WILL NOT BE AS ANOMALOUS COLD (5-10 F BELOW
AVERAGE).
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH COMBINATION OF VFR
AND MVFR POSSIBLE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOW AND STALL LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN WIND
DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. CSRA WILL SEE WINDS REMAINING MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO BRING BOTH SOME CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH IFR VISIBILITIES COULD
OCCUR, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE MORE OF
A LOW STRATUS EVENT WITH LOW END MVFR, OR EVEN IFR, CLOUD BASES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WE SHIFT BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE RETREATING FRONT.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A
FEW MODELS INDICATING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS VFR CONDITIONS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LATER MODEL
TRENDS NECESSITATING THE NEED FOR RESTRICTIONS TO BE ADDED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BRING MORNING FOG OR STRATUS THIS
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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