175
FXUS62 KCAE 261711
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1211 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS SEEN TODAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
LINGERS IN THE AREA BUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY, BUT WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGS MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR, THOUGH THE
CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS RELATIVELY LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY.
- MORE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT IS CLEARLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DECK OF STRATUS ALONG AND
BEHIND IT. THE FRONT IS STRETCHING FROM THE UPSTATE, THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN AIKEN AND NORTHEAST ORANGEBURG COUNTIES THEN DOWN INTO
BERKELEY COUNTY ALONG THE SC COAST. WHILE FOG HAS BURNED OFF,
STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT FOR
THE COMING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO SCATTER OUT. THIS CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK CAD SET UP SHOULD BRING A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA WITH THE CSRA TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND THE PEE DEE ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. AREAS BETWEEN HERE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO THE UPPER 60S. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST REGION. TONIGHT, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES, SOME MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SW OF THE
I-26 CORRIDOR, AND TOWARD THE LOW TO MID 50S NW OF HERE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR RECORD TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT SUNDAY BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE AREA.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA AGAIN ON
SATURDAY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AWAY FROM THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, DOWNSLOPE HEATING CAUSED
BY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK
UP TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR CAE AND
AGS FOR 12/27 ARE BOTH 77 DEGREES, WHICH IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR REACHING. ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS THEN FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE, HELPING TO
PUSH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. LOOKING AT
THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'RE SEEING
TODAY. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT CAN GET.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, LIKE THE ECMWF, IS IN ONE
CAMP AND KEEPING IT ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER, WHILE OTHERS, LIKE
THE GFS, ARE IN ANOTHER CAMP AND PUSH IT TO THE CSRA. REGARDLESS
OF WHERE THIS FRONT ENDS UP, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARD.
THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN GIVING THE WEST COAST HEADACHES THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD OUR
AREA. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
WITH IT. WHILE THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, IT APPEARS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SOME TIME MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE CRASHING AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
DESPITE THIS FRONT BEING STRONG, THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STILL
LOOKS LIMITED, SO ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 10-15F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE FRONT HAS STALLED OUT SOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA TERMINALS AND RIGHT OVER OGB, BRINGING MVFR TO IFR
CEILING RESTRICTIONS AND 5-9 KT WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS ARE SEEING SCT LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SCATTER/RISE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING BACK VFR
CONDITIONS AROUND 19-21Z. WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE AS THE
CURRENT NORTHEAST WINDS AT CAE/CUB/OGB SHOULD SHIFT A BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT LIFTS WHILE
AGS/DNL SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3,500
TO 6,000 FT LIKELY REMAIN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST. LAMP, HRRR, AND NBM GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT,
BUT THE HRRR AND HREF IN PARTICULAR ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF
STRATUS. AT THIS TIME, THE MORE LIKELY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY
MORNING SEEM TO BE DUE TO FOG BUT CEILING RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING, RETURNING TO VFR AFTER 15- 17Z WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING
MORNING FOG OR STRATUS AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page