476
FXUS62 KCAE 270022
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
722 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY, BUT WITH
MORE DRY WEATHER. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGS MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR, THOUGH
THE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS RELATIVELY
LOW.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO DROP INTO THE 50S. GRIDDED LAMP AND HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOW POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY FOG.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR RECORD TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT SUNDAY BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE AREA.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA AGAIN ON
SATURDAY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AWAY FROM THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, DOWNSLOPE HEATING CAUSED
BY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK
UP TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR CAE AND
AGS FOR 12/27 ARE BOTH 77 DEGREES, WHICH IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR REACHING. ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS THEN FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE, HELPING TO
PUSH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. LOOKING AT
THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'RE SEEING
TODAY. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT CAN GET.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, LIKE THE ECMWF, IS IN ONE
CAMP AND KEEPING IT ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER, WHILE OTHERS, LIKE
THE GFS, ARE IN ANOTHER CAMP AND PUSH IT TO THE CSRA. REGARDLESS
OF WHERE THIS FRONT ENDS UP, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARD.
THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN GIVING THE WEST COAST HEADACHES THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD OUR
AREA. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
WITH IT. WHILE THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, IT APPEARS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SOME TIME MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE CRASHING AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
DESPITE THIS FRONT BEING STRONG, THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STILL
LOOKS LIMITED, SO ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 10-15F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EARLIER RESTRICTIONS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO
START THE FORECAST WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AROUND
5KFT. THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND
MAY PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS. THE MET GUIDANCE IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESTRICTIONS
BUT IS AN OUTLIER WITH SREF/NBM/HREF NOT SHOWING RESTRICTIONS AT
THE TERMINALS, WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS POSSIBLE BRIEF STRATUS AT
AGS/DNL BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE IS A FORECAST LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED AND LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL WITH OVERNIGHT WINDS AROUND 5-6
KNOTS BUT THEY DIMINISH TOWARDS DAWN. DECIDED TO CARRY SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN TEMPO GROUPS ALL TERMINALS FOR POSSIBLE
FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE. IF ANY
RESTRICTIONS OCCUR THEY SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 14Z OR SO.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 6 KNOTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING
MORNING FOG OR STRATUS AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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