437
FXUS62 KCAE 271747
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1247 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE OF A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY BRINGS MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE
YEAR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
REST OF TODAY: UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER
FLORIDA. THIS HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA ALONG
WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
EXPECT THESE TEMPS TO RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES OR SO. AS A
RESULT, THE RECORD HIGHS AT CAE AND AGS (BOTH 77 DEGREES SET IN
2015) WILL BE WITHIN REACH. GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPS AS OF NOON
(76 AT AGS, 73 AT CAE) AT THIS STAGE OF THE DIURNAL HEATING,
AGS LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF TYING, AND POSSIBLY
BREAKING, THE RECORD HIGH. THERE IS SOME WORK TO DO AT CAE TO
REACH THE RECORD THERE.
OVERNIGHT: MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, MAINLY DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA AS
EVIDENCED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MARCH TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH
MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END
OF THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT. NONETHELESS, WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE,
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT, BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT RESULTS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST ALONG
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS
OVERHEAD, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FA
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST. WHILE IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL GO, THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL SEE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE COMPARED TO TODAY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. OPTED TO BLEND IN SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE
IN ORDER TO BETTER EMPHASIZE THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION, WHILE CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL ALSO LIMIT WARMING.
TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO CONSIDERATION HIGHS WERE LOWERED FROM
THE NBM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-60S TO MID-70S. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT NIGHT AS A POTENT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIMIT COOLING WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID-50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE CHANCE OF
RAIN IS LOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FA.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: A POTENT TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH ON
MONDAY WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE PWATS HAVE
INCREASED WITH THIS MODEL CYCLE, NOW UP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA AT
NIGHT RESULTING IN SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH LIKELY. THERE SHOULD BE A DELAY IN THE COLD AIR
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES BEFORE FALLING QUICKLY AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S,
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF EARLY IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THE YEAR CLOSES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS TROUGHING SETS
UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK, THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE BY 12-24 HOURS, WHICH WOULD HELP
EXPLAIN THE WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
REGARDLESS OF TEMPERATURES, THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) CONDITIONS LATE.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 5-8 KT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 05Z-06Z, AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO THE AREA, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
THEIR ARRIVAL, HOW FAR SOUTH THE GET, AND HOW LOW THE CEILINGS
WILL GET. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS (70-80%
CHANCE) TO REACH CAE, CUB, AND OGB, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT
AGS AND DNL. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IFR CIGS FOR CAE, CUB,
AND OGB AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
THOSE CEILINGS JUST YET. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO VARYING
DEGREES AT ALL THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. A ROGUE SHOWER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD EITHER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING
MORNING FOG OR STRATUS AGAIN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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