737
FXUS62 KCAE 272353
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
653 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
BRINGS MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RECORD HIGH TEMPS EARLIER TODAY
- BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AFTER A RECORD SETTING DAY WITH MULTIPLE HIGH TEMP RECORDS
BROKEN (CAE/AGS) TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE MILD THIS EVENING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS. A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NC, FROM AROUND GREENSBORO TO LUMBERTON, WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE CSRA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOUD COVER AND
ABOVE NORMAL DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE A GRADIENT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT RESULTS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST ALONG
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS
OVERHEAD, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FA
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST. WHILE IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL GO, THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL SEE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE COMPARED TO TODAY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PATCHY RAIN SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. OPTED TO BLEND IN SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE
IN ORDER TO BETTER EMPHASIZE THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION, WHILE CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL ALSO LIMIT WARMING.
TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO CONSIDERATION HIGHS WERE LOWERED FROM
THE NBM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-60S TO MID-70S. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT NIGHT AS A POTENT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIMIT COOLING WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID-50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE CHANCE OF
RAIN IS LOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FA.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: A POTENT TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH ON
MONDAY WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE PWATS HAVE
INCREASED WITH THIS MODEL CYCLE, NOW UP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA AT
NIGHT RESULTING IN SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH LIKELY. THERE SHOULD BE A DELAY IN THE COLD AIR
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES BEFORE FALLING QUICKLY AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S,
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DROP OFF EARLY IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THE YEAR CLOSES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS TROUGHING SETS
UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK, THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE BY 12-24 HOURS, WHICH WOULD HELP
EXPLAIN THE WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
REGARDLESS OF TEMPERATURES, THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY MVFR AND LIKELY
IFR AT CAE, CUB, AND OGB.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS AT THE TERMINALS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING LOWER CIGS
TO THE TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS BECOME LIKELY AT CAE, CUB, AND OGB AFTER
ABOUT 08Z OR 09Z, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING FOR IFR CIGS TO MOVE OVER
THESE TERMINALS NEAR DAYBREAK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN MVFR CIGS MAKING IT TO AGS AND DNL AND VERY LOW
FOR IFR CIGS. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AT THE TERMINALS, BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING
MORNING FOG OR STRATUS AGAIN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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