264
FXUS62 KCAE 011142
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE OPENING DAYS OF 2026 WILL FEATURE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH
SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM THIS MORNING.
- PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LINGERING CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ACROSS THE PEE DEE. THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 9AM BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
NEAR LAKE MURRAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BRIEFLY
INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF 2026 WITH THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GULF. WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AS THE ANTICYCLONE APPROACHES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY
JANUARY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUING MOST OF SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST MUCH OF FRIDAY, BUT WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RISE
PWAT'S FROM AROUND 0.50" DURING THE DAY TO NEAR 1" BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DESPITE CLOUD COVER. BY THE EVENING
HOURS, SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP'S COULD CREEP INTO THE
WESTERN FA, STEADILY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION. STRONG
850-925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD DRIVE PWAT'S TO NEAR 1.25"
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT SLOWING LIFTING NORTHWARD. THESE
FEATURES AND A 40-45 KT LLJ SHOULD DRIVE PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHTER LATE IN THE DAY. COVERAGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT
FULLY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN
EVENT TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50-1" REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AS LREF/NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.50" ARE ABOVE 60-70% FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY LARGE QPF
FOOTPRINT BETWEEN 0.50- 1". DRIER CONDITIONS THEN MOVE IN FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
BEHIND SATURDAY'S SYSTEM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TAKING OVER. PERSISTENT RIDGING
TO OUR WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE FA THROUGH THE WEEK,
LEADING TO A GENERAL WARMING TREND WHERE TEMPERATURES END THE
WEEKEND AND START NEXT WEEK NEAR AVERAGE BEFORE RISING ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE MID WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE....
SKIES ARE CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START
TO MOVE IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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