470
FXUS62 KCAE 012015
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
315 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE OPENING DAYS OF 2026 WILL FEATURE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS
EVENING, THEN SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL JET, WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE, AND MAY
NOT FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT GIVEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. RAIN
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION PUSHING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE AREA
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND LEAD TO HEAVIER RAIN RATES IN
LOCALIZED AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL SEE AMOUNTS FROM 0.5
TO 1 INCH THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
PUSH RAINFALL TOTALS CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES. WARM ADVECTION ON
SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO WEAK, CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY BUT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW GIVEN VERY POOR LAPSE RATES OR STABLE
LOW LEVELS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
PERSISTENT RIDGING TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 8-12 KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT NOT FULLY DECOUPLE DUE TO STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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