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FXUS62 KCAE 012336
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE OPENING DAYS OF 2026 WILL FEATURE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND CALM WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OF NOTE. TEMPS
WILL FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SOME STRATO-
CIRRUS, DOWNSTREAM OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER SATURDAY, MOVES
OVERHEAD. SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS, AROUND 40 F ACROSS THE AREA,
WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 2-4AM THEN STAYING STEADY THROUGH
SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. RAIN
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION PUSHING PWAT VALUES TO AROUND 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE AREA
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND LEAD TO HEAVIER RAIN RATES IN
LOCALIZED AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL SEE AMOUNTS FROM 0.5
TO 1 INCH THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
PUSH RAINFALL TOTALS CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES. WARM ADVECTION ON
SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO WEAK, CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY BUT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW GIVEN VERY POOR LAPSE RATES OR STABLE
LOW LEVELS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
PERSISTENT RIDGING TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT, WITH
MAINLY A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH FRIDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS DECOUPLE, THEN
AFTER MIXING STARTS AGAIN FRIDAY, WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGING SOME RAIN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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