228
FXUS62 KCAE 020551
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1251 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TRANQUIL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA.
- A WARMER DAY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.
- MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ARRIVING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST HIGH CLOUDS
START STREAMING INTO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S
BEFORE HOLDING STEADY TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER AND WAA
INCREASES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY TOWARDS THE FA. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WHILE GRADUALLY LOWERING AND
THICKENING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH CHANCES INCREASING QUICKLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: AT THE START OF THE PERIOD,
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE FA AS A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW NEARS ALONG WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST. PWAT'S SHOULD SURGE TO NEAR 1.25" AS STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY 25-40 KT LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS, A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ROUGHLY FROM AUGUSTA, UP TO THE COLUMBIA
METRO AND THEN OFF TO THE EAST NEAR SUMTER COUNTY. THIS FEATURE
MAY AID IN BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS GREATER UPPER SUPPORT
FROM THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THERE REMAINS SOME INCONSISTENCY
IN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE WARM FRONT
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THUS THE LIMITED WARM SECTOR THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF IT AND AHEAD OF A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. IN GENERAL, SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AROUND 400-800 J/KG OF MUCAPE COULD DEVELOP TOWARD THE CSRA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS WITH MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER
OF 35-45 KTS, THOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. THUS, WHILE
THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WHERE A STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OVERALL, THERE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD
0.50- 1" OF RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT BUT SPOTS WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 1.50" AS INDICATED IN RECENT
HIGH-RES RUNS. THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIKELY
CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MAKING A RETURN BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP PWAT'S TO UNDER 0.50"
THROUGH THE DAY WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE, IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S, BEFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURN BACK TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEK.
THERE REMAINS SOLID AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND
GLOBAL MODELS THAT AT THE START OF THE WEEK, WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HANG ONTO THE REGION WITH UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING
OVER THE CENTRAL US, SLOWLY SLIDING OVER THE FA THROUGH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE AVERAGE (POSSIBLY AS MUCH
AS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) BY THE MIDWEEK AND TOWARD THE
LATE WEEK AS RIDGING LIKELY PERSISTS. TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY THAN NOT AS THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE....
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO MOVE IN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD BUT THEY WILL NOT CAUSE ANY RESTRICTIONS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. RESTRICTIONS BECOME
MORE LIKELY JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS RAIN
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED DURING THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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