288
FXUS62 KCAE 021133
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A WARMER DAY EXPECTED DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDINESS.
- MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH RAIN ARRIVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS
WILL MOVE EAST TODAY TOWARDS THE FA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN DURING THE DAY WHILE GRADUALLY LOWERING AND THICKENING
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH CHANCES INCREASING QUICKLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: AT THE START OF THE PERIOD,
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE FA AS A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW NEARS ALONG WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST. PWAT'S SHOULD SURGE TO NEAR 1.25" AS STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY 25-40 KT LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS, A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ROUGHLY FROM AUGUSTA, UP TO THE COLUMBIA
METRO AND THEN OFF TO THE EAST NEAR SUMTER COUNTY. THIS FEATURE
MAY AID IN BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS GREATER UPPER SUPPORT
FROM THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THERE REMAINS SOME INCONSISTENCY
IN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE WARM FRONT
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THUS THE LIMITED WARM SECTOR THAT
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF IT AND AHEAD OF A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. IN GENERAL, SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AROUND 400-800 J/KG OF MUCAPE COULD DEVELOP TOWARD THE CSRA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS WITH MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER
OF 35-45 KTS, THOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. THUS, WHILE
THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WHERE A STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OVERALL, THERE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD
0.50- 1" OF RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT BUT SPOTS WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 1.50" AS INDICATED IN RECENT
HIGH-RES RUNS. THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIKELY
CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MAKING A RETURN BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP PWAT'S TO UNDER 0.50"
THROUGH THE DAY WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE, IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S, BEFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURN BACK TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEK.
THERE REMAINS SOLID AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND
GLOBAL MODELS THAT AT THE START OF THE WEEK, WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HANG ONTO THE REGION WITH UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING
OVER THE CENTRAL US, SLOWLY SLIDING OVER THE FA THROUGH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE AVERAGE (POSSIBLY AS MUCH
AS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) BY THE MIDWEEK AND TOWARD THE
LATE WEEK AS RIDGING LIKELY PERSISTS. TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY THAN NOT AS THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD....
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD BUT THEY WILL NOT CAUSE ANY RESTRICTIONS UNTIL AROUND THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. RESTRICTIONS BECOME
MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
IMPACTING AGS/DNL BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CAE/CUB/OGB NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED DURING THE
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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