008
FXUS62 KCAE 021825
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
125 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING OVER/NEAR THE AREA TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS NORTH OF THE REGION, WHILE LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER OR JUST
NEAR THE AREA.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 60-65.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW TO THE WEST, THE BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS
RAIN DEVELOPING GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASES.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST 12Z HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING BY MID-LATE EVENING, AND GIVEN THAT
MODELS TEND TO HAVE A SLOW BIAS FOR ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS, THIS EARLIER TREND MAY PROVE CORRECT.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LEAST HREF WILL
RANGE FROM 0.4 INCHES ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATEST. A FEW HEAVIER RAIN
BANDS COULD DEVELOP, AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOWS SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 0.6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILD GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH LOWS 45-50 WITH A FEW
LOWER 40S UP IN THE CATAWBA AND PEE DEE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN FORECAST
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA, OR JUST SOUTH,
WITH OVERRUNNING LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MUCH
OF THE FA. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN
THE MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN RATES FROM THE MEAN HREF
PEAKING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIKELY TO
RANGE AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WITH CAMS
CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST OF LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST BUT MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND
THE LOW LEADING TO MORE STRATIFORM RAIN INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON,
EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT IN THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
WHAT HAS CHANGED IS THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH STRONGER
NW FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WHILE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT WAIVER AS MUCH, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR SOME OF THOSE LOCALIZED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IS LESS CERTAIN. APART FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT, THE THREAT OF SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND
ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE WELL SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION THAT THE
WARM FRONT SETS UP. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-20 WILL REMAIN UNDER WEDGE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. SO WE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE 40S FOR THE NORTHERN FA.
HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE CSRA IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE STAY MUCH COOLER IF THE WARM
FRONT NEVER LIFTS NORTH OF THESE AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK, LOW RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVER THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES AND
SW FLOW STRENGTHENS WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY MID-WEEK. BY LATE WEEK, THE SPREAD IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE INCREASES IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AS RIDGING TENDS TO BREAK
DOWN AND SW FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
TYPICALLY SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY, THEN RAIN DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITY LIKELY
BY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN/LOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER/NEAR THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OCCURRING
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AFTER ABOUT 11Z. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS, BUT VISIBILITIES
COULD ALSO BE REDUCED IN MODERATE SHOWERS AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING, PERHAPS
A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AND INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED DURING THE
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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