160
FXUS62 KCAE 022340
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING OVER/NEAR THE AREA TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND SOME ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE, VIRGA CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH RADAR RETURNS
ABOVE ~8000 FEET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 DEGREES THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER. AHEAD OF STRONGER FORCING FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW TO THE WEST, THE HREF AND BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS
RAIN DEVELOPING GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASES. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE
WEST, SO THE HRRR TIMING OF GROUND REACHING RAIN BETWEEN 11-1AM
LOOKS GOOD. STEADY MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 7AM OF
AROUND 0.25". THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN RATES
AND TOTALS, SINCE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE THE ONLY SOURCE
OF LIFT. SO RAIN RATES WILL BE LIMITED BY MEDIOCRE PWAT'S, NON-
EXISTENT SURFACE INSTABILITY, AND LITTLE- NO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILD GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH LOWS 45-50 WITH A FEW
LOWER 40S UP IN THE CATAWBA AND PEE DEE.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN FORECAST
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA, OR JUST SOUTH,
WITH OVERRUNNING LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MUCH
OF THE FA. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN
THE MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN RATES FROM THE MEAN HREF
PEAKING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIKELY TO
RANGE AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WITH CAMS
CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST OF LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST BUT MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND
THE LOW LEADING TO MORE STRATIFORM RAIN INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON,
EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT IN THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
WHAT HAS CHANGED IS THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH STRONGER
NW FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WHILE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT WAIVER AS MUCH, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR SOME OF THOSE LOCALIZED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IS LESS CERTAIN. APART FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT, THE THREAT OF SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS AND
ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE WELL SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION THAT THE
WARM FRONT SETS UP. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-20 WILL REMAIN UNDER WEDGE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. SO WE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE 40S FOR THE NORTHERN FA.
HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE CSRA IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE STAY MUCH COOLER IF THE WARM
FRONT NEVER LIFTS NORTH OF THESE AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK, LOW RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVER THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES AND
SW FLOW STRENGTHENS WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY MID-WEEK. BY LATE WEEK, THE SPREAD IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE INCREASES IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AS RIDGING TENDS TO BREAK
DOWN AND SW FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
TYPICALLY SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO LATE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE PERIOD, THEN RAIN FINALLY DEVELOPS
AND MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. EXPECTING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. REGIONAL RADARS DO SHOW SOME RADAR
RETURNS MOVING INTO EASTERN GA AND WESTERN SC, BUT DUE TO HOW
DRY THE CURRENT AIRMASS IS, NONE OF THAT IS CURRENTLY REACHING
THE GROUND. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS, SO BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AND FINALLY
REACHING THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LOWERING OF
CEILINGS AS THE RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS THOUGH
UNTIL AROUND 10-11Z, BUT THOSE RESTRICTIONS WILL COME ON RAPIDLY
WHEN THEY OCCUR. IE VFR TO IFR IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AFTER
11Z, CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OCCUR EVERYWHERE, WITH
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THE PREDOMINANT CATEGORY WITH THE
HEAVIER RAIN. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN MOVING EAST AFTER 20Z, WITH
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN STILL POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EXITING SYSTEM THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. AS FOR WINDS, THEY SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AND INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST
OR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED DURING THE SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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