081
FXUS62 KCAE 030544
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1244 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK, CONTINUING INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.
- SATURDAY IS CLOUDY AND COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS EVENING.
- GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
RADAR TONIGHT SHOWS INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUICK INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
COLUMBIA AREA. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FA AT DAYBREAK WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE, A STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP NEAR
OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER WITH COOL TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S, ACROSS ALL BUT BURKE COUNTY, GEORGIA. WITH
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA NOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY, OPTED TO REMOVE ANY THUNDER CHANCES FROM THE FORECAST.
HAVING SAID THAT, A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER FROM ELEVATED
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH
ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST TOWARDS EVENING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING AT
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR OUT BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES
ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
MONDAY IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE RIDGE MOVES MORE
OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEEK.
BROAD RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE DRIVING
THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES AROUND MIDWEEK, BUT DOES LITTLE FOR LOCAL
SENSIBLE WEATHER. STRONGER RIDGING LOOKS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS
AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN ISN'T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OR INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING....
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE QUICKLY AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RESTRICTIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION PICKS UP IN INTENSITY.
CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. CLOUD BASES CONTINUE TO FALL ON
SATURDAY AND COULD REMAIN AROUND IFR OR LIFR LEVELS THROUGH THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, THOUGH RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
TOWARDS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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