448
FXUS62 KCAE 031139
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
639 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA, TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SATURDAY IS CLOUDY AND COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS EVENING.
- GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS IS LIKELY WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY, WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED TO THE NORTH. WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
RISE TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
THE NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING AT NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR OUT BUT
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
MONDAY IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE RIDGE MOVES MORE
OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEEK.
BROAD RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE DRIVING
THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES AROUND MIDWEEK, BUT DOES LITTLE FOR LOCAL
SENSIBLE WEATHER. STRONGER RIDGING LOOKS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS
AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN ISN'T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OR INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD....
THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE ARRIVED AT THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AROUND CAE/CUB, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT
OGB/AGS/DNL, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RISE TODAY AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LIFR OR IFR
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF
WHETHER THESE CLOUDS WILL REACH THE GROUND AND BECOME FOG.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT
BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY
AT THE TERMINALS ON SUNDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page