016
FXUS62 KCAE 031725
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1225 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ENDING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AHEAD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY, WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TOO.
- CLOUDS HANG TOUGH FOR SOME PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT, GRADUALLY
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUDS
CLEAR.
THICK, LOW-CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS IN-SITU
WEDGE CONDITIONS HANG AROUND THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ENDED UP FURTHER SOUTH THAN WERE FORECAST
YESTERDAY, LEADING TO MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL FALLING IN THE
SOUTHERN CSRA AND NORTHERN PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE
THIS, THE CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE QUITE GLOOMY WITH
DRIZZLE NOTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW AS DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS WORKING IN. THIS IS
GENERALLY A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, AT LEAST UNTIL THE FRONT CAN PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BARELY MOVE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY, HANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST. THE
PEE DEE REGION MAY ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS DIP A BIT AS NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ESTABLISHES AND PUSHES SOME 40S FROM NC INTO THE AREA.
TONIGHT, CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO HANG TOUGH WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE LOW-CLOUD SETUP. IN THEORY, THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT
STRATUS BUT THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THE
DURATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS, WITH MOS GUIDANCE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND HREF GUIDANCE MORE UNCERTAIN. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
CLEAR SOMETIME OVERNIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD YIELD FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THEREAFTER. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S WHERE CLOUDS HANG TOUGH TO THE
MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY MIDDAY WITH
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HELPING TO SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
30S.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A WARMING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH
HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED
DRY THROUGH THE WEEK
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WITH APPROACHING FRONT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BROAD FLATTENING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY TRANSLATING FROM THE MS/OH VALLEYS TO
THE EAST COAST MID WEEK. UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS A BIT BY THE
END OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PWATS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE WEEK AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
THU/FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MAY MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 70S WED-FRI. AS PWATS RISE TO 175-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER
ENSEMBLE MEAN THE NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD....
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE REMAINED A PROBLEM AT
ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WE ARE IN AN IN-SITU WEDGE CURRENTLY, WITH
A SURFACE LOW TRANSLATING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS ARE NOTED AT ALL SITES AND ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. THEREAFTER, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA GRADUALLY, WITH
DRY AIR LIKELY ERODING THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TO AN EXTENT.
HOWEVER, IF/WHEN THIS DOES HAPPEN, A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG
THEN ARRIVES AS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS. SO IT SEEMS PRETTY LIKELY THAT
SOME RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SUNDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT LIKELY BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY
AT THE TERMINALS ON SUNDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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