098
FXUS62 KCAE 032338
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITION WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG IN A FEW AREAS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AHEAD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
THICK, LOW-CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS IN-SITU WEDGE CONDITIONS
PERSIST. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, LOW CLOUDS HAVE SCOURED OUT BUT
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS, ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
AREA.
TONIGHT, THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z SHOULD HELP
TO CLEAR OUT STRATUS BUT THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY. OVERALL,
TRENDS FAVOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR SOMETIME OVERNIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD
YIELD FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG TO DEVELOP THEREAFTER. THE
COVERAGE OF FOG SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NBM DATA, AND LOCALIZED
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S WHERE
CLOUDS HANG TOUGH TO THE MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY MIDDAY WITH
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HELPING TO SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
30S.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A WARMING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH
HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED
DRY THROUGH THE WEEK
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WITH APPROACHING FRONT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BROAD FLATTENING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY TRANSLATING FROM THE MS/OH VALLEYS TO
THE EAST COAST MID WEEK. UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS A BIT BY THE
END OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PWATS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE WEEK AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
THU/FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MAY MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 70S WED-FRI. AS PWATS RISE TO 175-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER
ENSEMBLE MEAN THE NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RESTRICTIONS REMAINING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
THIS IS DUE TO GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD
FOG AFTER 06-08Z TONIGHT, WITH VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 1/2SM
POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z THROUGH 13Z. IT SEEMS PRETTY LIKELY THAT EVEN
AFTER THE FOG LIFTS SUNDAY MORNING, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY,
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR NOT LIKELY UNTIL AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT, THEN MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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