590
FXUS62 KCAE 040550
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1250 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LINGERING LOW CLOUDS PERSIST TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF I-20.
- AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHERE CLEARING OCCURS. THE
FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
- SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF I-20. IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
CLEARING, OBSERVATIONS ARE ALREADY REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS
FOG ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT ONE
INTO EFFECT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE PEE DEE TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN CSRA.
SUNDAY OPENS WITH AREAS OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT
SHOULD ERODE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A SHORT WINDOW OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
COOLING WITH FORECAST LOWS ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AS WE START
THE NEW WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
ON TUESDAY. NONETHELESS, A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE REGION IS LIKELY TO STAY DRY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE UPPER CSRA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW
CHANCE (10-20%) OF THIS OCCURRING. SO, WHILE UNLIKELY, IT IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION
AFTER THE NORTHERN TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. AS A RESULT, MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED, ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND
TO CONTINUE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY (>70%) OF HIGHS TOPPING 70 DEGREES BY MIDWEEK
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA APPEARS ON TRACK TO
AFFECT THE AREA AS TRANSITION FROM THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT PLENTY OF DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CEILING RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT....
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT AS STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME
CLEARING MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT CAE/CUB,
THOUGH THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THIS POTENTIAL IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED AT OGB/AGS/DNL
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SKIES CLEARING OUT IS LOWER AT THESE
TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND THE TAFS AS NEEDED. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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