126
FXUS62 KCAE 040920
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
420 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.
DRIER CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AFTER THE
FOG BURNS OFF, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LINGERING LOW CLOUDS PERSIST TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF I-20.
- AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHERE CLEARING OCCURS. THE
FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
- SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF I-20. IN AREAS THAT
HAVE SEEN CLEARING, OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING PERIODIC REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AS FOG ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY
DENSE, ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEAR OUT. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TOWARDS DAYBREAK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUT ONE INTO EFFECT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FA WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE PEE DEE TO THE MID-40S IN THE
SOUTHERN CSRA.
SUNDAY OPENS WITH AREAS OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT
SHOULD ERODE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A SHORT WINDOW OF MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
COOLING WITH FORECAST LOWS ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
TO THE MID-40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AS WE START
THE NEW WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
ON TUESDAY. NONETHELESS, A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE REGION IS LIKELY TO STAY DRY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE UPPER CSRA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW
CHANCE (10-20%) OF THIS OCCURRING. SO, WHILE UNLIKELY, IT IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION
AFTER THE NORTHERN TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. AS A RESULT, MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED, ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND
TO CONTINUE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY (>70%) OF HIGHS TOPPING 70 DEGREES BY MIDWEEK
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA APPEARS ON TRACK TO
AFFECT THE AREA AS TRANSITION FROM THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT PLENTY OF DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CEILING RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT....
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. WHILE
THERE HAS BEEN SOME BRIEF CLEARING OF SKIES AT AGS/DNL, CLOUDS
ARE APPROACHING THOSE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH. BRIEF CLEARING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. THE WINDOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS STARTING TO CLOSE
NEAR THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE CLEARING
SKIES NEAR CAE/CUB MOVE OVER THOSE TERMINALS LONG ENOUGH TO
PERMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE FURTHER AMENDMENTS
TO THE TAFS NEEDED THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT WITH
A SHORT PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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