453
FXUS62 KCAE 041143
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE DAY
GOES ON WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING TONIGHT. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WITH A
WARMING TREND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF I-20.
- SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED
IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-20. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS. THE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE DAY GOES ON FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WINDOW OF
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON COOLING WITH
FORECAST LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AS WE START
THE NEW WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
ON TUESDAY. NONETHELESS, A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE REGION IS LIKELY TO STAY DRY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE UPPER CSRA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW
CHANCE (10-20%) OF THIS OCCURRING. SO, WHILE UNLIKELY, IT IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION
AFTER THE NORTHERN TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. AS A RESULT, MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED, ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND
TO CONTINUE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY (>70%) OF HIGHS TOPPING 70 DEGREES BY MIDWEEK
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA APPEARS ON TRACK TO
AFFECT THE AREA AS TRANSITION FROM THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT PLENTY OF DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A MIX OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING....
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY SEEING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN
PLACE. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST AT
CAE/CUB/OGB DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT
TOWARDS MIDDAY. THE RESTRICTIONS COULD TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT
AGS/DNL AS DRY AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILTER SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS
LATER TODAY BEFORE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVES IN
TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LESS WIDESPREAD DEPENDING ON THE
THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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