868
FXUS62 KCAE 041648
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1148 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE DAY
GOES ON WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING TONIGHT. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WITH A
WARMING TREND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN AND CLEAR IN MOST
PLACES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TONIGHT.
A NICE SUNRISE SURPRISE APPEARED THIS MORNING AS DENSE FOG
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20. VISIBILITIES
WERE LESS THAN 1/8 OF A MILE AT TIMES, RESULTING IN A SHORT FUSE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THIS FOG IS BEGINNING THIN AND LIFT INTO LOW
STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT
IT IS BEGINNING TO THIN ON THE EDGES. WE SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE
RETURN TO MOST OF THE AREA SANS PARTS OF THE CSRA THAT ARE
REALLY IN THE THICK OF THE STRATUS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S MOST PLACES. TONIGHT, GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED
TOWARDS FOG QUICKLY BUILDING BACK IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG TONIGHT, AND HI-RES
GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND RRFS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS OUTCOME AS WELL. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT, WITH MAY NEED
ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MORE OF THE AREA FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. THANKFULLY, IT LOOKS LIKE LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT,
WHICH WILL HELP US AVOID ANY FREEZING FOG PROBLEMS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GENERALLY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE 60S. EXPECTING ANOTHER MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.
TUESDAY FIGURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH (NEARLY
150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) BUT WITH MINIMAL FORCING IT APPEARS UNLIKELY,
ALTHOUGH NON-ZERO. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TUESDAY NIGHT BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND WIND DUE TO AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A TRANSITION TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING MID TO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. INCREASINGLY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. ECMWF EFI TRENDS HAVE
ALSO BEEN SHOWING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (10-15 DEGREES) DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF UPPER RIDGING DESPITE ENSEMBLES INDICATING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY
FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
UPPER PATTERN SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OH/MS VALLEYS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HANDLING THE PHASING OF SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE HIGHEST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIFR CEILINGS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FOG/STRATUS
DECK BREAKS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
IT WAS QUITE THE EVENTFUL MORNING FOR TAFS ACROSS THE AREA AS
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AT THE AUGUSTA AND COLUMBIA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG HAS LIFTED INTO STRATUS WHICH IS TAKING ITS
SWEET TIME ERODING. IT IS ERODING AT THE EDGES AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SUNSHINE GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS. IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE
ALL SITES END UP SEEING THE CLOUDS BREAK UP, BUT REGARDLESS, IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF VFR AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TRENDING TOWARDS FOG
REDEVELOPING QUICKLY AT AREA SITES. LAMP & OTHER MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOW ON BOARD WITH DENSE FOG REDEVELOPING BY 03-06Z ACROSS THE
AREA AND THIS MAKES SENSE. THERE IS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT, THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STILL LARGELY BE IN PLACE,
AND WINDS IN THE LOWER 2KFT OR SO ARE VERY LIGHT. THIS SHOULD
COMBINE TO YIELD A QUICK ONSET OF 1/2SM TO 1/4SM VIS
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT AREA SITES. EXPECTING THAT
THIS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND LONGER IN DURATION THAN WE SAW
TODAY, SO HAVE FORECAST THIS EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
CLEARING AROUND A SIMILAR TIME ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN
TO VFR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD LIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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